Aaron Jed Rabena

Aaron Jed Rabena

Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress; member, Philippine Council for Foreign Relations

Aaron Jed Rabena is a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress in Manila and a member of the Philippine Council for Foreign Relations (PCFR). His areas of interest include strategic studies, East Asian geopolitics and multilateral politics, political risk, as well as Chinese politics and foreign policy.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (centre) is seen on a video screen as he salutes in front of the troops during the 87th anniversary celebration of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, at the military headquarters in Quezon City in suburban Manila on 19 December 2022. (Ted Aljibe/AFP)

It's hard for the Philippines to stay neutral in a Taiwan contingency

In the event of hostilities in the Taiwan Strait, Manila’s defence treaty with the US will give it little room to manoeuvre. Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s recent visit to China underscores his intent to have a constructive relationship with China, and it remains to be seen how the Philippines will navigate its relationships with both the China and the US.
This handout photograph taken and received on 6 July 2022 from the Philippines' Presidential Photographers Division (PPD) shows Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi (2L) paying a courtesy call to Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (2R) at Malacañang Palace in Manila. (Philippines' PPD/AFP)

The China factor and ‘Bongbong’ Marcos’s foreign policy

While it is too early for his foreign policy platform to fully emerge, the Philippines' new president will have his hands full in calibrating Manila’s relationships with Washington and Beijing. It is not a foregone conclusion that he will lean strongly in either direction. This is in the context of continuing issues such as the South China Sea, with disputes over the Whitsun Reef and Second Thomas Shoal.
Traffic in front of a Chinese restaurant in Boracay, Aklan, the Philippines, on 23 March 2022. (Veejay Villafranca/Bloomberg)

The Belt and Road Initiative and the Philippines’ post-Duterte China challenge

Even under China-friendly President Duterte, Chinese BRI projects in the Philippines still encountered strong political opposition and faced several challenges in their roll-out. Ultimately, a positive domestic response to the BRI hinges on whether Manila can negotiate mutually beneficial and fair deals that allow China to contribute to the Philippines' economic agenda.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping before their meeting at the Great Hall of People in Beijing, China on 25 April 2019. (Kenzaburo Fukuhara/Pool via Reuters)

China's CPC deepens ties with Philippine political parties

Under Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, party-to-party (P2P) relations have been forged and deepened between the Communist Party of China (CPC) and various Philippine political parties. Such P2P diplomacy offers China a new diplomatic channel to promote bilateral relations and complement confidence-building measures. It also enables Beijing to hedge at the sub-national level given the plurality of political bases in the Philippines. Philippine researcher Aaron Jed Rabena looks at the engagements thus far and examines how these may affect Philippine domestic politics.