Cai Daolu

Cai Daolu

Visiting Senior Fellow, NUS Business School

Daolu Cai is a visiting senior fellow at the NUS Business School’s Department of Strategy and Policy. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities and his Bachelor of Arts degree from Universidad del Pacifico. His research interests include macroeconomics and international economics. Prior to joining NUS Business School, he was a faculty member in the Economics Department at the Pennsylvania State University. Daolu started his teaching career as an instructor in the Department of Economics at the University of Minnesota and in the School of Business at Hamline University. He has served as an economic consultant to public entities and businesses in different regions of the world, including Latin America, Asia and North America.

People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in the Financial District on 26 January 2022 in New York City. (Spencer Platt/AFP)

America's new reality of high inflation and what it means for the world

Despite past macroeconomic stability, the US economy is beginning to see increased inflation across many sectors. Reports say that US consumer price figures for January due on Thursday could show core inflation rising to the fastest pace since 1982 at 5.9%. The situation is not helped by the government's recent move to issue additional debt which was mostly purchased by Fed banks. If the US government defaults on its debt, the global financial market will be affected. Higher interest rates to fight inflation in the US may also require that China and other Asian economies adjust their own domestic policies on interest rates and exchange rates.
Travellers walk past Chinese flags ahead of China's National Day and Golden Week holiday, at Shenzhen Baoan International Airport in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China 30 September 2021. (Aly Song/Reuters)

CPTPP: How China’s membership could be a win-win

The combined output of members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is about US$13.5 trillion or 14% of global GDP, and will be even larger if China joins. From the economic perspective, there is much for all members to gain with China’s entry, but they would also be wary of certain aspects such as threats to their domestic industries and issues concerning intellectual property standards and regulatory non-tariff barriers. Cai Daolu looks at the reception China will be expecting to get to its CPTPP bid.
Employees work on a production line manufacturing camera lenses for mobile phones at a factory in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China, 30 April 2019. (China Daily via Reuters)

Suspension of China-EU investment deal: A hiccup in the short run but a major loss if prolonged

Negotiations on the investment agreement between the EU and China were concluded at the end of last year but the European Parliament recently passed a resolution to freeze any consideration or discussion of the agreement. This was following retaliatory sanctions from China after the EU's round of Xinjiang-related sanctions. NUS academic Cai Daolu sees the suspension as a economic and trade relationship hiccup in the short run. But if prolonged, it would turn into a missed opportunity, not just for EU and China, but for the global economy as well.
A pedestrian wearing a face mask walks near an overpass with an electronic board showing stock information, at Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China, 17 March 2020. (Aly Song/File Photo/Reuters)

China-EU investment deal can bolster the world’s post-pandemic recovery

Cai Daolu of the NUS Business School says that the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) between China and the EU can help to reduce uncertainty and facilitate the flow of investment, technology and know-how across borders. In fluid times, good old-fashioned economic integration and openness to foreign direct investment are just the booster shot that the world economy needs.
Empty streets are seen amid the coronavirus pandemic on April 15, 2020 as stay at home order has been extended in Washington, DC until May 15. (Daniel Slim/AFP)

The Great Lockdown: How to ensure a speedy recovery?

With the IMF forecast of a 3% contraction in the global economy for 2020, the economic outlook for a coronavirus-ravaged world is grim. Cai ponders how the world can pick itself up after going through what the IMF terms “the Great Lockdown” and the onslaught of “the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis”.