On 13 March, Taiwan officials confirmed that a Taiwanese soldier who had gone missing from an atoll off Kimen County’s Lieyu Island on 9 March was in mainland China. And according to Kuomintang (KMT) Legislative Yuan member Chen Yu-chen who is in contact with the soldier’s family, the soldier has no intention to return to Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Minister Chiu Tai-san said on 13 March that the mainland side had informed them of the soldier’s whereabouts and was processing the case. Details would be released after investigations. Also, whether the soldier was a deserter and when he would be sent back to Taiwan would be decided by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense. The MAC would do its part to assist.
Based on Taiwan media reports, the missing soldier is 26-year-old Private First Class Chen Chia-hsu. He began serving in Kinmen in April 2020, working as a cook at the Lieyu Garrison Battalion on Erdan Islet. Around 40 soldiers are stationed on this islet located about 4.4 km from mainland China’s Xiamen city.
When Chen missed a roll call on 9 March and did not appear even after a search of Erdan Islet was conducted, he was reported missing. Kinmen Defense Command Major-General Chang Rong-shun and other soldiers confirmed that Chen behaved as usual and everything was normal in the days before his disappearance.
He did not carry sensitive objects such as weapons or military intelligence documents.
Thereafter, media reports said that Chen swam with a life jacket towards mainland China, but was rescued by the Chinese Coast Guard enroute. Military sources familiar with the incident said Chen was spotted on shoreline surveillance footage. From the blurry image, it was unclear if he had a life jacket on; there were also no life jackets missing from the garrison supplies.
Military sources also said that the soldier only carried his phone, wallet and other personal belongings when he went missing. He did not carry sensitive objects such as weapons or military intelligence documents.
Addressing media reports, Taiwan Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng said on 10 March that there was no need to speculate on the soldier’s disappearance and that it was more important to find him and let him explain his actions himself. He also apologised for the “very regrettable incident” which has caused public anxiety, and vowed to conduct an internal investigation into military discipline issues to fully review and improve the army. He said the outside world should refrain from calling Chen a “deserter” before official investigations were complete.
The Taiwan military stipulates that a disappearance notice will be put up for soldiers who have gone missing for 24 hours, while a soldier who has gone missing for six days will be identified as a “deserter” on the seventh day of his disappearance if he fails to return. In theory, this means that since Chen has not returned to his garrison by 15 March, the Kinmen District Prosecutor Office can identify him as a “deserter” in accordance with the law. It is reported that the Office issued a wanted notice for Chen on 17 March, and a formal request for repatriation will be submitted to mainland China through Taiwan's Ministry of Justice this week.
Apart from the MAC’s confirmation that the soldier has been rescued by mainland coast guards, the details of this incident and the follow-up arrangements have yet to be officially conveyed. But since the MAC, Ministry of National Defense, military and government have been tight-lipped about the situation, numerous speculations and rumours among the public have surfaced.
Taiwanese commentators generally believe that Chen has little political value to the mainland and it is unlikely that he had actually defected.
Defector, deserter or something else?
Amid tense cross-strait relations, the nub of the public opinion debate has centred on whether the soldier had defected to the mainland.
Ever since it was revealed that he was picked up by mainland Chinese coast guards, the media and Taiwan netizens have rushed to speculate that the soldier could have switched his allegiance to the Chinese Communist Party. The incident has also reminded several people about the case of Chinese economist Justin Yifu Lin, who had swum from Kinmen to Xiamen in 1979 when he was a Taiwanese ground force captain and company commander in Kinmen.
Nurtured by the Chinese government since then, Lin not only teaches at Peking University but has also served as chief economist and senior vice-president of the World Bank, becoming an icon of official propaganda. Lin was also a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference for many terms, while his wife, Chen Yunying, has also been a representative of the National People’s Congress for many years.
This time, the missing soldier is not of a high rank and only works in the kitchen of the garrison. He is not exposed to military intelligence and neither was it found that he was carrying intelligence documents or weapons when he went missing. Hence, he will not receive the same kind of treatment that Lin received back then. Taiwanese commentators generally believe that Chen has little political value to the mainland and it is unlikely that he had actually defected.
Taipei City Councilor Chung Pei-chun of the KMT pointed out on a TVBS current affairs programme that, unlike the time when Lin defected, both sides of the Taiwan Strait have not entirely fallen out and there are other options rather than risking his life and swimming to Xiamen if he really wanted to defect. She said, “Direct air routes between both sides of the Taiwan Strait are open now. If anyone wants to go to the mainland, just take your passport and you’re there.”
However, others think that while Chen is just a kitchen staff, he still holds valuable information about the number of soldiers on Erdan Islet, the configuration of weapons and equipment, and how resources are resupplied. If he provides the mainland with this information, albeit far less sensitive than what Lin had in possession, he may still gain political asylum and a job in exchange.
Another mainstream view is that the soldier did not want to defect but just wanted to leave the Kinmen base, but was restricted by geography, so people mistakenly thought he wanted to swim to Xiamen to defect. Those who hold this view feel that the soldier might have run out of energy while swimming and drifted with the current to near the median line, where he was rescued by mainland Chinese.
According to Taiwanese law, a soldier who deserts or tries to evade military service can be imprisoned for up to five years, while those who return within six days will have their sentence reduced. Those who defect can be sentenced to death or imprisoned for ten years to life — the penalties for desertion and defection are very different.
However, based on known information, it does not explain why Chen chose this method of leaving the base. There are rumours that he was bullied, but following investigations by a military panel, this did not happen. KMT Legislative Yuan member Chen Yu-chen also made contact with the soldier’s family and revealed on 12 March that there was no huge debt or relationship dispute as rumoured.
Chen Yu-chen said Chen’s family revealed he owed the bank about 300,000 NTD (US$9,800), which is not a large amount, and there is debt negotiation in place. There was no relationship dispute, and his communication records did not show anything unusual. And when he was last home on break, he only bought some army supplies, with nothing out of the ordinary.
... mainland China is still looking into the situation and assessing how best to use this heaven-sent treat or “hot potato” to tussle with Taipei. — Taiwan Security Analysis Center director Mei Fu-shin
Besides the mainstream views above, some netizens let their imaginations run wild, with online forums and social media comments full of mocking views such as that he wanted to buy eggs from across the Taiwan Strait to improve military rations, or that he was in a bad mood and went swimming, but was swept away.
Besides the different penalties, whether desertion or defection, the nature of the incident and its possible repercussions vary greatly. So, nobody dares to draw a definitive conclusion. Perhaps as Chiu said, the truth will only come out when the person in question speaks up.
How is mainland China handling it?
As of now, mainland China has not made any public statements on the incident.
According to United Daily News, Taiwan Security Analysis Center (TAISAC) director Mei Fu-shin wrote on Facebook that Chen was found and held by the mainland Chinese coast guard for at least three days, but until now mainland China has not issued any statement, which means mainland China is still looking into the situation and assessing how best to use this heaven-sent treat or “hot potato” to tussle with Taipei.
An analysis by Taiwan’s Storm Media Group said that from Beijing’s viewpoint, dealing with the soldier might have to be escalated to the level of geopolitics and not just looking at current laws on either side of the Taiwan Strait, which are almost all not applicable. The Kinmen Agreement focuses on the repatriation of those who illegally cross the Taiwan Strait, while the Cross-Strait Joint Crime-Fighting and Judicial Mutual Assistance Agreement focuses on repatriation in criminal cases such as telecommunications fraud.
The article said the soldier’s fate depends on how Beijing classifies him. The first thing is to confirm his identity as friend or foe. The next thing is to investigate his motives. If he is not defecting and Beijing sees the situation in the Taiwan Strait as internal conflict, and his status is as an enemy soldier, he might be considered a prisoner of war.
Crisis of confidence in Taiwan’s military?
Besides the many points of doubt, this incident is also generating interest because there have been many negative reports on the Taiwan military recently, and dissatisfaction has built up.
Early this month, Taiwanese soldiers stationed on the Matsu Islands wrote on the beach sand that they were hungry, leading people to wonder if there was a shortage of food even before any fighting. And the day before Chen went missing, the media reported that there were two instances of missing weapons in the Marines, with one pistol being swapped for a model gun, leading to doubts about Taiwan's military discipline and the accuracy of regular ammunition stock control and accounting.
Everything that happens with the Taiwan military is given more attention than before. If the authorities do not handle these negative incidents properly, the impact on trust and confidence cannot be ignored.
Late last month, Japanese media quoted informed sources saying that as many as 90% of former Taiwanese military officers headed to mainland China after leaving the military, providing Taiwanese military intelligence in exchange for payment; the article added that corruption was the norm. While Taiwan’s military, defence ministry and foreign affairs ministry gave a formal rebuttal, the seeds of doubt were sown.
On 11 March, Taiwanese TV personality and associate professor in National Chengchi University's Department of Diplomacy Lai Yueh-tchienn said on a current affairs programme that the frequent negative news will affect the assessment of Taiwan’s military by the US-led international community, adding his concern that it would be interpreted as flawed management and low morale in Taiwan’s military.
Nonetheless, the frequent negative news, speculation of “defection”, and controversial incidents like the extension of mandatory military service and revisions to the All-out Defense Mobilization Readiness Act — all these are happening amid the constant friction between both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the growing possibility of armed conflict. Everything that happens with the Taiwan military is given more attention than before. If the authorities do not handle these negative incidents properly, the impact on trust and confidence cannot be ignored.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “金门士兵漂流记”.
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