The closely watched fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will be conducted from 26 to 29 October in Beijing. The meeting will be focused on formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) for economic and social development, as well as future targets for 2035.
China has been formulating these plans by modelling after the Soviet Union since 1953. There have been plans promulgated every five years with the exception of the period between 1963 and 1965, when the economy was going through adjustments.
Prior to reform and opening up, these five-year plans were focused on agricultural and industrial development and were issued by the State Council. Following reform and opening up, China transitioned from being a centrally planned economic system to a socialist market economy. Chinese society became more diverse and the five-year plans began to cover various aspects including the economy, society, and culture.
While these plans are still drawn up by the State Council, it now has to be submitted for deliberation at the plenary sessions of the central committees of the CPC and then passed at the National People’s Congress (NPC).
The formulation of these plans is a huge undertaking that is generally prepared two years prior to the plenary session.
Since the fifth plenary session of the 14th Central Committee of the CPC in 1995, the five-year plans have been deliberated at the fifth plenary session of the National Congress of the CPC.
In 2005 at the fifth plenary session of the 16th Central Committee of the CPC, the word “plan” (计划) in Chinese was changed to “programme” (规划). This subtle change reflects the country's thoughts about transitioning from a planned economy to a market economy.
The formulation of these plans is a huge undertaking that is generally prepared two years prior to the plenary session. When drafting the next five-year plan, officials have to conduct a midterm evaluation of the previous plan. On the basis of soliciting opinions from all parties, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) drafts a midterm evaluation report on the previous plan and proposes improvements and solutions to problems while conducting preliminary research on the next plan.
It would also have undertaken its own research on hundreds of topics, and completed a report of over millions of words through the hard work of thousands of experts and tens of thousands of researchers.
Much deliberation at each stage of drafting the 14th Five-Year Plan
Preparation for the current 14th Five-Year Plan would have begun with the preliminary research phase. This involves doing basic research, gathering information, doing thematic research, putting together supporting documents for the major projects in the plan, and so on.
Based on the midterm evaluation of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the NDRC would have flagged major issues to be included in the 14th Five-Year Plan, then called for external researchers to look at them. It would also have undertaken its own research on hundreds of topics, and completed a report of over millions of words through the hard work of thousands of experts and tens of thousands of researchers.
This is clearly a bottom-up model of policy making.
Thereafter, a drafting panel would be set up consisting of officials from various departments such as the State Council Research Office and the NDRC, to come up with a "proposed final draft" of the 14th Five-year Plan.
Based on the research results, the NDRC would have come up with a first draft of the 14th Five-Year Plan, then sought input from ministries, regions, and experts, before making adjustments to the draft.
The adjusted draft would have been submitted to the CPC Politburo Standing Committee for discussion; after the committee reached a consensus, it would have notified various stakeholders and taken in more views.
Thereafter, a drafting panel would be set up consisting of officials from various departments such as the State Council Research Office and the NDRC, to come up with a "proposed final draft" of the 14th Five-year Plan. This draft will now be submitted for discussion at the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the CPC.
The final draft outline will be submitted to the State Council, Politburo Standing Committee, and the Politburo to be discussed and finalised as the official draft outline.
14th Five-Year Plan will consider new development modes
In line with standard practice, Premier Li Keqiang will represent the CPC Politburo in briefing the session on the proposed plans for economic and social development, which will be discussed and passed, and then officially announced.
After the proposals are announced, the NDRC will draw up a draft outline, on which views will be sought from the NPC, the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), regions, ministries, and the people of Hong Kong and Macau.
The final draft outline will be submitted to the State Council, Politburo Standing Committee, and the Politburo to be discussed and finalised as the official draft outline. The State Council will submit this to the NPC for discussion in March next year.
Finally, the NPC will discuss and approve the outline. Only then will the 14th Five-year Plan be officially launched.
Before the congress, the NPC Standing Committee will get NPC members to discuss the draft outline in advance. And when the congress opens, Li will include a brief on the outline while delivering his report on the government’s achievements, and the NPC and CPPCC National Committee will discuss the outline in groups and raise suggestions for amendments. Finally, the NPC will discuss and approve the outline. Only then will the 14th Five-year Plan be officially launched.
The CPC Politburo meeting on 28 September emphasised that the economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan has to be in line with the CPC’s overall leadership’s plans to improve people’s lives. There has to be new development prospects and means, as well as improvements in quality, efficiency, and drive. China has to deepen reform and opening up and ramp up measures that will enhance resource distribution and motivate society. It has to adhere to a systems approach, while continuously looking out for major risks and challenges.
All these form the outline of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan.
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