Chinese academic: Can China challenge the US’s standing in the Middle East?

Although China has made inroads into the Middle East as a major investor and economic partner, some are suspicious of its intentions in being all things to all countries in this fractious region. Thus, even if there is much hype about its ability to take over the US’s role in the region, China should remember that it still lacks the power and wherewithal to exert a major influence.
People wearing face masks walk past a mural displaying Iran's national flag in Tehran, Iran on 17 June 2021. (Atta Kenare/AFP)
People wearing face masks walk past a mural displaying Iran's national flag in Tehran, Iran on 17 June 2021. (Atta Kenare/AFP)

In recent years, international news reports of China deepening its ties with Middle East countries have been on the rise. Under the Trump and Biden administrations, the US announced its withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afghanistan respectively, so it seems that the country is paying less attention to the Middle East. Against this backdrop, China, viewed by the world to be vying with the US for global leadership, has been labelled an active participant in Middle Eastern affairs and challenger to the US’s position in the region. Is this an accurate reflection of reality though?

Closer China-Middle East ties

It is true that more Middle East countries have increased or are seeking to increase their bilateral exchanges with China since the beginning of the 21st century. There are two main reasons for this. First, the rapid pace of China’s development is attractive to the Middle East. Second, the waging of wars and meddling by major Western powers such as the US have brought disastrous outcomes to the political leaderships, governments and people in the region.

Since 2001, the US and its allies have started wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and become deeply embroiled in the conflicts in Libya and Syria. This has not only resulted in the chaotic mess in all four countries today, but has also led to the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terrorist group which has had an even more catastrophic effect on the Middle East.  

After overthrowing the Saddam and Taliban regimes, the US failed to spearhead a healthy trajectory of national development in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the end, Washington announced that it was withdrawing troops and left both countries in the lurch. Consequently, the situation in Afghanistan rapidly deteriorated, and civil war seems imminent.

Even though the US and its allies brought war and other catastrophes to the Middle East, the locals still view them favourably. In fact, a common phenomenon in the region is that the most vocal critics of the US there are often also trying hard to make their way to the country.  

A US soldier stands by as a local woman and child look on during a US military patrol in Rumaylan (Rmeilan) in Syria's Al-Hasakeh province on 22 June 2021. (Delil Souleiman/AFP)
A US soldier stands by as a local woman and child look on during a US military patrol in Rumaylan (Rmeilan) in Syria's Al-Hasakeh province on 22 June 2021. (Delil Souleiman/AFP)

After such behaviour from the US and its allies, can Middle East leaders still trust them fully? Do the long-suffering people of the Middle East not wish their countries to have other diplomatic options?

While the US was conducting military operations in the Middle East, China has been working hard on its development, and its achievements have captured the attention of the world. From 2006 to 2020, China’s GDP as a proportion of the US’s GDP has risen significantly from 19.9% to 70.4%.

China’s massive economic accomplishments, its tradition of not interfering in the internal affairs of others and its growing influence have enhanced its attractiveness to Middle East countries. At the same time, it has also launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which promotes peaceful development and win-win cooperation to further its relations with Middle East countries.

Will Middle East leaders urgently looking for ways to develop their countries overlook such a China? Will people in the Middle East who long to improve their lives reject the benefits of working together with China?

With the BRI, China has already forged closer cooperation with Middle East countries, in areas such as infrastructure and 5G telecommunications. Currently, China is the biggest trading partner of many countries in the region, including the Arab countries and Iran. China is also the biggest sovereign investor in the Middle East. 

The Middle East’s misgivings about China

China’s outstanding developmental achievements, enormous investments in other countries, significant capacity for infrastructure building, and enthusiasm for a better relationship with the Middle East are clear to see. However, it also cannot be denied that Middle East countries are still sorely lacking in confidence and trust towards China. This has significantly curbed their appetite for cooperating with China.

Despite the intricacies of relations amongst countries in the region and their serious conflicts in certain issues, China can maintain normal relations with all of them. Does this mean that it has questionable values? 

This file photo taken on 22 June 2021 shows cargo containers stacked at Yantian port in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China. (STR/AFP)
This file photo taken on 22 June 2021 shows cargo containers stacked at Yantian port in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China. (STR/AFP)

Even though the US and its allies brought war and other catastrophes to the Middle East, the locals still view them favourably. In fact, a common phenomenon in the region is that the most vocal critics of the US there are often also trying hard to make their way to the country. 

As a latecomer to the game, China is still less appealing to Middle East countries than developed Western countries, such as the US, the UK and Germany. To many in the Middle East, China is not the first country that comes to mind in times of need. Additionally, even today, the exaggerated claims of quality issues with Chinese products continue to prejudice the minds of people in the Middle East towards China.  

Some Middle East countries also harbour suspicions about Chinese diplomacy in the region. They often wonder how they are really viewed by China and if the latter genuinely wishes to pursue good relations with them or merely wishes to use them as makeweights in the competition amongst great powers. Such doubts are common among both government officials and civilians in the region. 

Certain states in the region find it incredible that China maintains normal to friendly relations with almost all Middle East countries. Despite the intricacies of relations amongst countries in the region and their serious conflicts in certain issues, China can maintain normal relations with all of them. Does this mean that it has questionable values? This is the question in the minds of many in the region.

A general view of a cattle market in Al Manashi village, ahead of the Muslim festival of sacrifice Eid al-Adha, in Giza, on the outskirts of Cairo, Egypt, 15 July 2021. (Mohamed Abd El Ghany/Reuters)
A general view of a cattle market in Al Manashi village, ahead of the Muslim festival of sacrifice Eid al-Adha, in Giza, on the outskirts of Cairo, Egypt, 15 July 2021. (Mohamed Abd El Ghany/Reuters)

Other than this, the hype generated by the international media, and misunderstandings of China, have caused some in the Middle East to question the intentions behind China’s diplomatic efforts there, and have prevented them from forging closing relations with China. The most obvious recent example of this is the public opposition of some Iranians to the signing of the 25-year cooperation pact between the two countries.

China needs to better engage Middle East countries

Be it out of self-interest or the responsibilities of a major power, China must pay more attention to the Middle East. Its diplomatic efforts in the region over the last few years have proved the point, but there is much more to be done.  

First, China needs to convince Middle East countries that its diplomatic efforts in the region are not influenced by third parties. As mentioned earlier, the importance that China attaches to its diplomatic ties with Middle East countries is still being doubted. Scarred by painful episodes in the past, countries in the region are very wary of ending up as pawns in the contest amongst major powers. China must work hard to dispel such concerns in its engagements with the region.

Second, China must fine-tune its diplomatic engagements with Middle East countries. Even though “Middle East” is an oft-used phrase, China needs to pay more attention to the nuances when dealing with regional countries. As different Arab countries have different needs when it comes to developing relations with China, a single foreign policy for all Arab countries is unlikely to succeed, much less one for the entire Middle East. China has to be more targeted when dealing with different Middle East countries. 

In the foreseeable future, it is unlikely that China has the will or ability to challenge the US’s standing in the Middle East.

People walk along Eminönü district in Istanbul, Turkey, 12 July 2021. (Umit Bektas/Reuters)
People walk along Eminönü district in Istanbul, Turkey, 12 July 2021. (Umit Bektas/Reuters)

Third, China must step up its diplomatic efforts in engaging key countries in the region. Middle East countries are divided into several camps led by various regional powers. Under such circumstances, China needs to give more priority to regional heavyweights such as Turkey, Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE. 

Fourth, China urgently needs to be sharp and nimble in its Middle East diplomacy. As the situation in the Middle East changes frequently, acuity in diplomatic exchanges with countries in the region is necessary. If it is encumbered by conventional diplomatic thinking, it may not come up with the most appropriate responses to current circumstances. Where necessary, Chinese leaders or senior government officials can consider visiting a specific country during official trips to the region, instead of persisting with an approach of visiting multiple countries with conflicting interests each time (to show that it is unbiased).

All in all, while Middle East countries wish to forge closer ties with China, they also hope to maintain good relations with the US and major European nations. As China works hard to continue its development, it must also think of more appropriate and effective ways to become more attractive to Middle East countries. Even though it has shown increased enthusiasm in participating in the development of the Middle East, China still lacks the power and wherewithal to exert its influence in the region. Therefore, the current hype of China becoming embroiled in the Middle East is rather pointless.

In the foreseeable future, it is unlikely that China has the will or ability to challenge the US’s standing in the Middle East. Let us also not forget that all along, China has been emphasising peaceful development and win-win cooperation in its diplomatic exchanges with the Middle East, which is a clear departure from the policy goals that the US wishes to achieve in the region.

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