David Arase

Lecturer, Hopkins-Nanjing Center, Nanjing University

David Arase is Visiting Senior Fellow at the Regional Strategic and Political Studies Programme, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute. He taught postgraduate courses in International Politics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Center at Nanjing University, China, for the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and was a visiting academic at the Asia Global Institute at Hong Kong University.

Leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) countries, including Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon, attend a narrow-format meeting at a summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, 16 September 2022. (Sergey Bobylev/Sputnik/Pool via Reuters)

Xi Jinping's China dream keeps the world awake at night

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan highlights his bid to advance his vision of the China dream. This, however, will require changes in the global balance of power that countries around the world, including Southeast Asian countries, will find hard to manage. How will China proceed from here, and will it be able to win allies along the way?
US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks at a news conference with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen at the presidential office in Taipei, Taiwan, 3 August 2022. (Taiwan Presidential Office/Handout via Reuters)

The lasting impact of Pelosi's Taiwan visit on Southeast Asia

ISEAS researcher David Arase says that following Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, China has sought to bully the island with a series of import bans and a de facto blockade. China's moves seem to follow the pattern of Russian bluster and military mobilisation preceding its invasion of Ukraine, which might then lead to armed conflict that would destabilise and divide Southeast Asia.
A screen shows a CCTV state media news broadcast of Chinese President Xi Jinping, addressing the BRICS Business Forum via video link, at a shopping center in Beijing, China, 23 June 2022. (Thomas Peter/Reuters)

China’s Global Security Initiative stoking regional tensions

China has doubled down on its alignment with Russia against the West. This has led to a proliferation of minilaterals and security partnerships aligned with the US. China's launch of its Global Security Initiative is not helping to assuage Western worries of Chinese ambitions and countries in the region are also wary. What will this mean for Southeast Asia?
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend the first working session of the G20 Summit in Osaka, 28 June 2019. (G20 OSAKA)

Strong China-Japan relations a fantasy in a divisive world: Will ASEAN benefit?

Since the coronavirus pandamic hit, Japan has been trying to reduce an overdependence on China vis-à-vis its supply chains. But this is by no means a sign that it wants to decouple from the Chinese economy. Several Japanese firms in fact have the intention to expand their operations in China. However, the geopolitical situation and other factors have meant a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations including the stalling of a planned state visit by President Xi Jinping. International politics professor David Arase opines that even with the best of intentions and efforts, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would find it difficult to maintain meaningful relations with China in a divisive world. Closer Japan-ASEAN ties may be one of the upsides out of the chaos.