Economy

The Covid-19 pandemic has brought China’s economy to a low point. Economic forecasts for the quarter and the whole year have been revised downward, and the continued spread of the coronavirus across the world will not help the situation. Zaobao correspondent Chen Jing speaks to the experts on what to expect in the next few months.

US-based academic Hu Hao warns that the US needs to diversify its supply chains and revive its manufacturing industry, particularly in the medical sector, if it does not wish to let its major competitor China have undue leverage during times of emergency and beyond.

Chinese financial commentator Tan Haojun adopts a positive and determined view when he says while the coronavirus situation has affected China’s economic development and role in global supply chains, this is short-term — much like recovering from the common cold. All things considered, China is already recovering at a breakneck pace and predictions that decoupling from China will hasten are much exaggerated.

Professor Andrew Delios shares the possible outcomes of the BRI, from fulfilling strategic objectives to the Red Scare Scenario. To find out which is the most likely, he says we must first consider if the BRI is just a series of road, rail and ocean linkages across nations. And what is the point of a route of transportation, without a destination? He finds the answers in China's economic zones.

Despite China identifying itself as a developing country at the WTO, it has been viewed in several quarters as one of the top countries in the world in terms of its economy and national strength. Economics professor Zhu Ying asks: is it any surprise that the US has never recognised China as a developing country?

Zhang Yugui, dean of the School of Economics and Finance at the Shanghai International Studies University, weighs up Shanghai’s chances of becoming an international financial centre that can vie with leading cities such as New York and London. While he is certain that Covid-19 will not affect Shanghai's progression towards its goal, he feels there is no need for Shanghai to be overly fixated on letting the world know that it has become an international financial centre by a certain date.

Senior research fellow Chen Gang says that the Covid-19 outbreak has led the Chinese government to announce that it is facing “wartime conditions” and will be imposing a system of political, economic, social management for extreme circumstances. The world is also taking preventive measures. Such a scenario sees China entering a “pre-decoupling stage” where its resilience and self-reliance will be severely tested.

Two months from the onset of Covid-19 and the ensuing gridlock, global supply chains have been disrupted, travel plans have been derailed while oil prices continue to plummet. Chen Jibing lays bare the crippling effects that the coronavirus outbreak has and will have on the global economy. In part two of the report, Chen analyses the volatility of the commodities markets, the impact on China’s ability to implement the US-China phase one trade agreement, and the implications for global economic growth in 2020.

Two months from the onset of Covid-19 and the ensuing gridlock, global supply chains have been disrupted, travel plans have been derailed while oil prices continue to plummet. Chinese commentator Chen Jibing lays bare the crippling effects that the coronavirus outbreak has and will have on the global economy. In part one of the report, Chen focuses on its impacts on human and goods mobility as well as on the global supply chain.