Economy

So far, Fitch is the only one of the “big three” credit rating agencies to release a statement raising the possibility of a review of the US sovereignty rating with negative implications. Financial commentator Tan Haojun says that the three agencies are giving the US a lot of leeway that would probably not be given to other countries, when they should be impartial and fair in giving a rating.

China’s imports and exports of goods totalled 18 trillion RMB in the first half of this year, 27% higher than the same period last year. However, instead of rejoicing over soaring numbers, Chinese academic Peng Shengyu warns that huge exports also point to a great loss of domestically created material wealth flowing overseas. He says by unreservedly supplying China-made goods to the US who has the power to print money in abandon, and leaving wealth accumulation in the hands of individuals, the Chinese government has not done enough to improve the lives of its people, especially the poor.

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can potentially optimise and vastly improve the central bank’s monetary policy transmission with preset conditions to incorporate forward-looking and counter-cyclical features. This means that central banks can accurately control the amount, direction and intensity of liquidity or money supply flowing to the desired industries, thereby allowing industries to achieve an optimal level of production and reduce the risk of inflation or deflation. Earlier this year, China tracked and paid wages to builders in Xiong’an using its digital RMB, e-CNY. Is this a harbinger of things to come?

The combined output of members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is about US$13.5 trillion or 14% of global GDP, and will be even larger if China joins. From the economic perspective, there is much for all members to gain with China’s entry, but they would also be wary of certain aspects such as threats to their domestic industries and issues concerning intellectual property standards and regulatory non-tariff barriers. Cai Daolu looks at the reception China will be expecting to get to its CPTPP bid.

China's Evergrande Group has agreed to sell a 20% stake in Shengjing Bank Co. to the local Shenyang government for 10 billion RMB (US$1.55 billion) to settle debts with the lender, according to a Bloomberg report. But the sale will do little to help Evergrande pay its massive debts to bond holders and homebuyers, many of whom camped outside its Shenzhen headquarters since news of its possible bankruptcy was reported more than two months ago. In fact, Evergrande missed paying its bond interest due on 29 September, in its second unpaid offshore debt payment in a week. Caixin journalists investigate the "high risks, high rewards" modus operandi of the Evergrande Group and its executives who lived on high debts, high financing costs but also big profits. Can Evergrande's high life continue or will they become "China's Lehman Brothers"?

China has made it clear that it wants to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This will allow it to strengthen its image as an advocate of free trade, gain some cover from future sanctions by the US, and most importantly, spur domestic reform. Academic Gu Qingyang delves into the topic.

In 2005, the People’s Bank of China unpegged the RMB from the US dollar, transiting it to a floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. The policy shift resulted in an appreciation of the RMB relative to the US dollar and Singapore dollar. With stronger purchasing power, how did Chinese foreign buyers' housing consumption patterns in Singapore change? How has that affected Singapore's property market? Academics Fan Ying and Sing Tien Foo analyse data over the last two decades for the answer.

In 2020, Japan was ASEAN’s largest export partner of auto parts, making up 17.8% of ASEAN's exports, followed by the US (15.4%) and China (10.2%). However, with the onslaught of the Delta variant of Covid-19 this year, many Southeast Asian countries have imposed factory operation restrictions that have disrupted the supply chain, with Japanese firm Toyota Motor suffering the greatest impact. Japanese academic Sukegawa Seiya examines the issue.

Zhang Rui analyses that there are more pros than cons to China’s entry to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) whether one looks at it from China’s individual economy, regional industrial chains or global income gains. However, sizeable obstacles stand in the way of its entry, not least US-led political roadblocks, even if the latter is not currently a member of the reconfigured CPTPP. China’s internal system and regulations will also have to change to meet the rigours of the high-standard CPTPP. Can China play the long game and will the world truly move closer towards Asia-Pacific economic integration?