US-China pledges to work together on climate action have been all too familiar, throughout times of changing US administrations and tense US-China relations. Even as cajoling each power to take more action has its limits, the greater danger is a global green technology war that punishes the global south.
Politics
Economy
The EV adventure in China has been successful in some respects, not least with 5.9 million EVs sold on the Chinese market, amounting to 59% of EVs sold globally. However, as a means to reduce climate change, the effort has tended to “put the cart in front of the horse”, because EVs are not particularly environmentally friendly without a steady stream of renewable electricity supply. Academic Erik Baark lays out the factors involved.
Economy
With just about six months to go to the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai, how is China stepping up its transition to a low-carbon economy and is it on track to achieve a peak in carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060?
Technology
Erik Baark observes that the US has an added motive for using ‘national security’ to impose various high-tech export restrictions on China — to give itself wriggle room vis-à-vis WTO rules for trade trade and trade restrictions. In fact, many of their policies seem to be mimicking the very Chinese techno-nationalist and neo-mercantilist attitudes that have been criticised by the West, and may or may not achieve their intended effect.
Economy
Erik Baark points out some of the peculiarities of China’s emissions trading system (ETS) with Chinese characteristics on its one-year anniversary. Going forward, will the Chinese ETS gradually morph into an ETS in the likes of the EU ETS as it works towards meeting its dual carbon ambitions?
Technology
While China has accelerated its push to build the infrastructure and to promote 5G among telcos and subscribers, it still faces a shortage of exciting new 5G applications that will draw in a constant stream of consumers or find wider industrial use. Amid a hostile external environment, it also faces some challenges in rolling out 5G and other advanced digital technologies through the Digital Silk Road. Nonetheless, it plans to go full steam ahead.
Society
Erik Baark takes a bird’s eye view of the structure of energy supply and demand in China, analysing how macro issues led to the September 2021 rash of power cuts across China. He notes that China's continued development needs energy, and a shift from heavy industries to services or high-tech fields does not mean that the country's energy needs will decrease. The Chinese government is looking to new and renewable energy resources to take the place of the old, but transitioning to new energy sources is not an easy process, especially when different actors are trying to protect their own terrain and a mindset change is necessary. It will be a tall order for the Chinese government to get local governments, old power grid corporations and the public to align with new policies and thinking. All this means that power cuts will not be going away anytime soon.
Economy
The adoption of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) with significant targets for the development of renewable energy and other green technologies, together with the launch of a national carbon emissions trading scheme, indicates that the Chinese leadership is committed to policies that should reduce the nation’s carbon footprint, ultimately leading to a zero-emission economy by 2060. However, the complexities of implementing these policies are daunting, with stakeholders that are likely to resist change and reforms that require substantial investment over the next decades.
Technology
Amid intense technological competition with the US, China is more determined than ever to be self-reliant in core frontier technologies. It has rolled out various plans but several obstacles such as financial resources stand in the way. Is it a case of more haste, less speed?