China's 2021 quarterly economic figures showed a general weakening, falling to a low 4% in the fourth quarter. While international analysts are of the view that China’s economy is in rapid decline, Gu Qingyang thinks otherwise. But that does not mean China's road ahead in the new year will be smooth sailing. Policies will need to be tweaked to ensure a stable economic trajectory in 2022.
China has made it clear that it wants to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). This will allow it to strengthen its image as an advocate of free trade, gain some cover from future sanctions by the US, and most importantly, spur domestic reform. Academic Gu Qingyang delves into the topic.
China has introduced a wave of strong regulatory moves on various industries over the past months, alarming international observers and causing jitters in the financial market. However, says academic Gu Qingyang, these moves could be necessary and might just set China in the right direction to face future challenges better.
Despite various waves of the coronavirus resurfacing in different parts of China, the authorities have effectively implemented a zero-Covid policy to control the spread of infections, including the more transmissible Delta variant. Academic Gu Qingyang notes that while the policy has largely worked and helped to keep China’s economy humming, it is specific to China's conditions and may not be replicable elsewhere.
In May this year, China’s leaders proposed a new dual circulation strategy featuring both domestic and international circulation, with emphasis on the former. Associate Professor Gu Qingyang of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) notes how this new strategy will complement the current global economic system, and how it will affect the rest of the world.
In the post-Covid-19 world, global supply chains are expected to be reconfigured as countries look to reduce their reliance on China. Enter greater room for ASEAN-China cooperation, particularly in areas related to the digital economy, such as in the development of smart cities. Associate Professor Gu Qingyang of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) sets out the arguments.
China is speeding up its construction of a “domestic circulation system” to complement its international efforts, in a bid to protect itself from any anticipated effects of decoupling from global supply chains. If the world wishes to cut itself off from China, it seems to say, so be it, as it can make its own plans.
Don’t shoot the messenger, Prof Gu says. Anti-globalisation activists may be quick to point fingers at globalisation per se for the coronavirus mess the world finds itself in. But such quick conclusions miss the message that many have been saying all along that stronger international institutions are needed to make globalisation work. If the world learns these lessons, globalisation can come back from this crisis stronger than before.
With their complementary strengths, China and Singapore can undertake Singapore-China projects that meet the needs of developing countries, says academic Gu Qingyang. Among other things, he suggests that the two countries can establish a third-party market cooperation and coordination mechanism to turn the BRI into a platform for win-win global collaboration.