Han Heyuan

Han Heyuan

Senior Research Fellow and Vice-Chairman, Guangdong Association of Productivity Science; Distinguished Research Fellow, Institute of Southern Governance, Guangzhou University

Han Heyuan is a Senior Research Fellow and Vice-Chairman of the Guangdong Association of Productivity Science, and a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute of Southern Governance, Guangzhou University. His latest book is The Road To Healthy Economic Growth in China (《通往正确之路——未来中国经济增长靠什么》), 2017.

People visit a shopping mall in Beijing, China, on 18 February 2024. (Pedro Pardo/AFP)

China’s capital market faces challenge of shrinking population

Chinese academic Han Heyuan notes that amid longstanding challenges, an emerging issue could sink China’s capital market further in dire straits: a declining population.
Passengers wait for trains at Hongqiao Railway Station in Shanghai on 29 September 2023. (Rebecca Bailey/AFP)

Will China's economy 'collapse' again?

Despite speculations about the decline of China’s economy, Chinese academic Han Heyuan says that history has shown that such contrarian sentiments have been proven wrong time and again, for example in the case of the US, Japan and even China during the turn of the century.
People ride elevators at a shopping street in Beijing, China, on 16 June 2023. (Florence Lo/Reuters)

Crisis of trust underlies Chinese private sector's unwillingness to invest

Erratic and unreasonable governance of local governments and a shift in public opinion towards left-wing ideology are just some of the causes for the private sector’s lack of confidence in China, says academic Han Heyuan. Even with the latest measures to boost the sector, government efforts seem to fall short of expectations.
People cross a street on the Bund in the Huangpu district in Shanghai, China, on 15 June 2023. (Hector Retamal/AFP)

China’s economy lacks foundation for expanding consumption

Chinese academic Han Heyuan notes that following the pandemic, disposable income in China is not at a level that allows for more domestic consumer spending, leading to economic growth being hampered. Also, the Chinese mentality is one of saving rather than spending, which makes it more of a challenge to encourage domestic demand.
Banknotes of Chinese renminbi and US dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken 29 September 2022. (Florence Lo/Illustration/File Photo/Reuters)

The US’s dilemma: Dollar dominance or re-industrialisation

In response to former US President Donald Trump’s recent scare about China trying to “displace the US dollar as the number one currency throughout the world”, academic Han Heyuan says that a certain equilibrium is maintained by the US suffering a trade deficit but safeguarding dollar hegemony. If the US wants to bring manufacturing back to the US, it may not be able to export dollars the way it used to, and cannot hope for the dominance of the US dollar to hold.
Pedestrians in the Pudong's Lujiazui Financial District in Shanghai, China, on 10 October 2022. (Qilai Shen/Bloomberg)

Large population no longer an asset to China's long-term growth

Chinese academic Han Heyuan notes that while China is claiming that its economic growth outlook remains healthy, the signs are there that changes to its population would also mean changes to its economic growth. Other factors such as dependence on overseas markets would also come into play.
A mother and her baby play on a slide at Wukesong shopping district in Beijing, China on 11 May 2021. (Noel Celis/AFP)

China’s rising property prices have serious social consequences

Han Heyuan asserts that rising property prices in China are not just the “biggest grey rhino” in terms of financial risks as some policymakers have said, but also a catalyst for a slew of development and social issues such as the lack of entrepreneurs, negative attitudes to work, and falling birth rates.