US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi landed in Taiwan on 2 August despite China’s repeated warnings and objections. Shortly after she arrived at Taipei Songshan Airport on a Boeing C-40C aircraft, the Chinese foreign ministry and the National People’s Congress released statements to strongly condemn the move, asserting that the US has “reneged on its commitments on the Taiwan question” and seriously infringed upon China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
At the same time, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has begun live-fire military drills encircling the entire island and its Eastern Theater Command has also launched a series of joint military operations around Taiwan. China’s commerce ministry and the General Administration of Customs have also banned citrus fruits imports and natural sand exports with Taiwan.
... much of China’s propaganda on the Taiwan Strait has been a major failure
Overzealous propaganda
Amid its grim economic outlook, China’s relative restraint on the situation is reasonable and the best it can do to protect its interests, given that the US and the West are still more powerful.
However, much of China’s propaganda on the Taiwan Strait has been a major failure — not only has it failed to effectively communicate to the public the purpose of their policies and actions towards Taiwan, but it has also concocted unrealistic illusions. Once reality hits and these illusions burst, the government’s credibility would take a serious hit.
Even before Pelosi’s Taiwan visit, at any stirring in the Taiwan Strait, the state media including CCTV News, the People’s Daily and Global Times, as well as the official media platforms of the Communist Youth League, theatre commands and military services, would often flex their muscles by posting videos on Weibo and Bilibili showing action-packed military exercises.
These clips often showcase overzealous slogans such as “We can fight and win battles”; “We will not give up an inch of our territory”; “Offer wine for our friends and aim rifles at our enemies”; “Prepare for any eventuality and fight on command”; and “Prepare for war”.
The proliferation and tone of such videos portray the idea that China can defeat its enemies overnight. Netizens would eagerly ask, “Is war coming? Let’s not sleep tonight!”
While these responses are often satirical, some netizens are convinced; however, others have expressed their frustrations at being duped by misinformation.
The excessive buzz resulted in enormous pressure to meet expectations and fulfil promises. If it cannot withstand the test of reality, it would suffer a serious backlash.
Misguided public
A state media commentator even published a lengthy article detailing how the PLA could forcefully prevent Pelosi’s aircraft from visiting Taiwan, including escorting it over Taiwan, intercepting it or even shooting it down with a missile. The article was filled with conviction and confidence in the reliability of its sources, and used words such as “China has the right…” and “China can”. This has whetted the appetite of the public even more.
The excessive buzz resulted in enormous pressure to meet expectations and fulfil promises. If it cannot withstand the test of reality, it would suffer a serious backlash.
In the end, there was no reunification battle, nor any escorting, interception or shooting down of Pelosi’s plane, thus becoming a slap in the face. The huge difference between reality and people’s expectations immediately ignited a public debate.
Disappointed netizens flooded the internet saying, “Turns out that we are the paper tigers”; “It is all empty talk. How can we trust the government?”; “Our red lines are being crossed one by one”; and “Coward”.
The next day, the commentator was backed into a corner to put out the fire, admit his mistake, and become a punching bag.
... rather than spreading at every turn that a major battle is coming, why not set reasonable expectations and patiently outline plans for a “long war”?
Indeed, the Taiwan Strait narrative is problematic as it lacks guidance and sets unmanageable expectations. Despite knowing that the Taiwan issue is of great interest to the Chinese internet community, especially the young netizens, the abovementioned state media prioritised mass circulation and used the newswire to sell propaganda, averting their responsibility to provide proper guidance to the public on fully understanding the complex Taiwan issue.
The Taiwan Strait narrative needs to be adjusted and improved.
Planning out a ‘long war’
First, rather than spreading at every turn that a major battle is coming, why not set reasonable expectations and patiently outline plans for a “long war”?
Admittedly, on the Taiwan issue, it is necessary to boost the military’s morale and combat readiness, but this should also depend on the situation, rather than automatically stirring up an atmosphere that a huge battle is imminent and blindly fanning wolf warrier sentiments upon the slightest movement in the Taiwan Strait.
A straight comparison of the strength on each side of the Taiwan Strait would show that “liberating” Taiwan would be easy. But in reality, the Taiwan issue is not straightforward — it is a tussle between China and the US, and even China and the Western camp, involving regional security, supply chain stability, governance costs, opposing systems, and a shift in the international order.
Historically, on issues touching on core interests, China has tended to remain steady and called for peaceful dialogue while pushing back in a controlled manner, gradually expanding its sphere of control.
To be able to gain a major breakthrough or a “one-strike solution” through a diplomatic incident would go against historical norms. The state media should instead focus on gaining an upper hand through self development and improvement to ensure reunification at the lowest cost and good governance afterwards.
Furthermore, as much as possible the narrative should be consistent with policies and actions towards Taiwan, in order to be credible. This time, China’s response is in line with its modus operandi. Historically, on issues touching on core interests, China has tended to remain steady and called for peaceful dialogue while pushing back in a controlled manner, gradually expanding its sphere of control.
For instance, the PLA only launched its counterattack against India after issuing warnings. And today, China continues to strengthen its control over the disputed territory on the China-India border mainly through infrastructure rather than military strength.
And in the six months that the anti-extradition demonstrations grew into “black terror” in Hong Kong, mainland China did not send the military police to suppress it, but patiently drew up legal measures, passing the Hong Kong national security law in 2020 to reverse the chaos in one fell swoop.
The narrative should take into account all these historical incidents in interpreting the Taiwan policy, so that the public can fully understand China’s long-term strategy and develop calm observations and rational thinking.
Whether the third Taiwan Strait crisis sparked by Lee Teng-hui’s visit to the US in 1996, the independence referendum initiated by the Chen Shui-bian administration in 2005, or Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan this year, China has conducted military exercises as a deterrent without an actual military strike. The difference is that the area of the exercises keeps expanding, and getting closer to Taiwan’s “waters” as drawn up by the Taiwanese authorities.
The narrative should take into account all these historical incidents in interpreting the Taiwan policy, so that the public can fully understand China’s long-term strategy and develop calm observations and rational thinking.
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