Liu Jianchao could become China’s next foreign minister. While he could improve China’s outreach efforts, he is unlikely to bring about any significant change in China’s foreign policy.
Politics
Seven ASEAN member states have signed on to China’s “community of shared future” more for mutually beneficial cooperation than because they subscribe fully to the Chinese vision of a new regional order. The remaining three may prefer practical cooperation rather than to be enmeshed in China’s grand strategy and discourse.
Politics
The lack of Western representation at the recent Belt and Road Forum has strengthened China’s resolve to push ahead with the Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing is using the Forum as a vehicle to engage the developing world in a more concerted manner.
Politics
Vietnam appears to be drawing closer to the US with the recent upgrade in ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This development, however, should not be overestimated as Vietnam-China relations, especially party-to-party ties, remain strong.
Politics
Wang Yi travelled to Singapore, Malaysia and Cambodia in his first foreign visit after his re-appointment as foreign minister, underscoring Beijing’s strong commitment to Southeast Asia. The visit was also possibly meant to highlight continuity and absence of disruption to China’s foreign relations and its Southeast Asia policy following Qin Gang’s removal as foreign minister. ISEAS researcher Lye Liang Fook says that while China may be attempting to dictate how Southeast Asia should act, it should recognise that the region has the "capability and wisdom" to do what is right while keeping positive ties with all of its significant partners.
Politics
Recent top-level changes at China’s foreign ministry are unlikely to affect Beijing’s foreign policy orientation towards Southeast Asia. The region remains important in light of China’s difficult relationship with the US and other key countries.
Politics
It is not in Vietnam’s national interest to be overly dependent on China or the US. Hanoi is expected to continue to press ahead with efforts to build on its ties with the two major powers as part of its multi-directional foreign policy. There are, however, limits to both approaches. Given General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong's health situation, a physical trip to the US may not be feasible, and any diplomacy might have to be carried out long distance.
Politics
In January 2021, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited several ASEAN countries, including Brunei, Indonesia, Myanmar and the Philippines, in an effort to push for collaboration in key projects under the BRI, and providing access to Chinese vaccines. However, Beijing’s passage of a new coastguard law has undermined Wang Yi’s outreach efforts. ISEAS academic Lye Liang Fook explains what is behind China's efforts and looks into its implications.
Politics
Southeast Asian countries prefer a healthy balance of power between major powers in the region. This is often overlooked by China and the US, which want them to take a stand on issues of concern. ISEAS academic Lye Liang Fook suggests that recent attempts by China and the US to gain support from certain Southeast Asian countries may, in fact, drive them away.