Can Trump 2.0 govern? A divided nation holds its breath

While the world had previously experienced a Trump administration, Trump 2.0 will not be identical. The US and the world have changed significantly over the past four years, and today’s Donald Trump is not the same as before. We can only wait and see what kind of administration Trump 2.0 will be, with his staff picks offering some clues.

After taking office, Trump will have to immediately handle many thorny issues and fulfill various campaign promises, including ending the Russia-Ukraine war, mass deportation of illegal immigrants, and streamlining and restructuring the government and military. At the same time, he will certainly swiftly retaliate against many of his political rivals.

As in his first term, he will first “de-Bidenise” the government by having his many loyal subordinates carry out his will. To achieve that much within just four years will not be easy, so Trump feels an intense sense of urgency. He has already started announcing his cabinet picks, and even suggested that his term should begin from the day the election results are declared.

Trump’s cabinet lineup is indeed unconventional and diverse, featuring a mix of insiders and outsiders that have some commonalities. 

Most of them are non-establishment figures with an anti-establishment streak. Secondly, they have demonstrated loyalty to Trump, at least during the campaign. Thirdly, their key ideological stances align with Trump’s, such as being anti-China, pro-Israel and anti-immigration, advocating “America First”, believing in trade protectionism, and denying climate change.

Trump defeated Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by a clear margin, gaining control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives. With a conservative majority on the Supreme Court, his authority has reached an unprecedented level, in sharp contrast with his previous term, where he faced numerous constraints. 

Perhaps this time, he will have greater freedom to impose his will, avoiding the need to repeatedly replace establishment figures such as secretaries of state and national security advisers, or dismiss high-ranking officials who opposed his views. However, with such concentrated power, Trump may become overconfident, making it difficult to predict what shocking moves he might make during his term.

Looking at the team he has assembled, the world may need to buckle up and get ready for a rollercoaster ride over the next four years. Many of these individuals resemble “henchmen”, just waiting for a chance to go on the rampage in their respective fields. 

For instance, the nominee for secretary of state is senator Marco Rubio, a Latino hawk who in recent years has consistently advocated for a tough foreign policy against geopolitical rivals such as China, Iran and Cuba.

Next, the nominee for national security adviser is congressman Michael Waltz, another hawk who has publicly supported Trump’s foreign policy. Waltz has criticised China’s activities in the Asia-Pacific region and argued that the US must prepare for potential conflicts in the area. The nominee for Central Intelligence Agency director, John Ratcliffe, is also a congressman and a known China hawk who briefly served as director of National Intelligence in 2020.

The nominee for director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, has zero intelligence experience. A former major in the Hawaii Army National Guard and former Democrat, Gabbard joined the Republican Party in 2022 and has been a vocal Trump supporter. She is anti-war, opposes foreign military interventions, and advocates reducing US military deployments abroad. She has publicly questioned US intelligence agencies, but might soon be responsible for overseeing all 18 intelligence organisations.

Trump’s initial choice for attorney general, Matt Gaetz, lacked experience at the Department of Justice and faced a Justice Department investigation for alleged sex trafficking involving a minor. Gaetz withdrew from consideration. Trump then nominated Pam Bondi, a staunch supporter and one of his lawyers during his first impeachment trial, where he faced — but was acquitted of — charges of abuse of power related to pressuring Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden.

The nominee for secretary of homeland security, Kristi Noem, has no direct experience in national security or border enforcement. Meanwhile, the nominee for secretary of health and human services, Robert Kennedy Jr., is a vaccine conspiracy theorist.

The picks for the newly created Department of Government Efficiency are two of the wealthiest people in America, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy — both lack political experience but are capable of firing people. 

The nominee for secretary of energy, Chris Wright, is a fossil fuel tycoon and a climate change sceptic. The nominee for secretary of defence, Pete Hegseth, is particularly unusual. While he is a former military officer who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, he has no experience working in the government or at the Pentagon, and until last week was a host at Fox News.

Trump’s unconventional choices do give the impression of random picks. If the candidates are confirmed by the Senate according to convention, what kind of government would such an administrative team form? 

For most people, it would be a ragtag team attempting to satisfy the interests of major support bases; whether they will be able to work together is hard to say for now. Looking at their track record, some might feel that this would be a “half-baked” government.

From China’s perspective, this will undoubtedly be a government hostile to China. Israel would likely view it as a pro-Jewish government. Meanwhile, Europe and other allies would see it as a government that seeks to extort protection fees. In terms of global trade, it will most likely be a government focused on unilateralism and protectionism. 

Ultimately, Trump 2.0 could turn out to be a one-man government, as the traditional separation of power among the three branches of government in the US will largely lose its effectiveness over the next four years.

Most of Trump’s cabinet nominees will have no problem obeying the “boss’s” instructions. However, with so many inexperienced individuals in the administration, it remains uncertain whether they can effectively handle a variety of tough issues, such as ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, carrying out mass deportation of illegal immigrants (Trump claims he will expel one million people in his first year), and managing intelligence operations. It is a major question mark whether all of them are up to the task — there might be internal conflict if things go south.

In April 2018, John Brennan, who served as CIA director under Barack Obama, criticised Trump’s administration on Twitter, calling it a “kakistocracy” — a government run by the least competent or most unsuitable citizens. 

Economist Paul Krugman later expanded on this idea in a column, saying that not only was Trump’s government a “kakistocracy” — ruled by the worst — but also a “hackistocracy” (a term Krugman likely coined), meaning ruled by the ignorant and incompetent.

These are clearly the views of establishment elites who deem Trump as a terrible leader. But how could someone so terrible come back and even win a higher share of votes than before? 

This proves one thing: American society is seriously divided. Many Americans, including the traditional political and business elites, are weary of partisan politics, dissatisfied with the status quo, and rejecting the so-called establishment. But they are powerless to change the situation, and Trump has won their support by portraying himself as their spokesperson and saviour.

Let’s not forget that the two-party political reality in the US has changed little. Nearly half of the people voted for the Democratic Party. And while the Democrats are now in the minority, they will find ways to undermine and disrupt Trump over the next four years. 

No matter who is in power, the establishment (also called the “deep state”) that is in firm control of US politics and economy will not change, and they will not allow Trump to operate unchecked. They will protect their own interests, create obstacles for him, and then deal with him after enduring for four years. Trump 2.0 may not be able to do as he pleases.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “特朗普2.0是什么政府？”.

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