Japan and China’s path to resolving Fukushima treated water discharge

On 20 September 2024, the Japanese government announced that Japan and China had reached a common understanding on resolving the issue of the discharge of treated water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, which had been a point of contention between the two countries since August 2023.

This was based on the agreement reached at the Japan-China Summit on 16 November 2023 that both sides will “seek to find ways to resolve issues through consultations and dialogue in a constructive manner”.  It was also the result of efforts by diplomatic officials on both sides of both countries. The Fumio Kishida administration — soon to step down — may have wanted to highlight its diplomatic achievements.

However, this news, which should have been a sign of progress in Japan-China relations, was overshadowed by the murder of a Japanese child in Shenzhen. The tragic incident was widely reported in Japan and will leave a deep scar on Japan-China relations. This may be a setback for those who hoped to make the “resolution” of the Fukushima treated water issue a diplomatic achievement or to use it as an opportunity to advance Japan-China relations.

However, one could argue that the Shenzhen incident has heightened the significance of the negotiations and outcomes surrounding the ALPS (Advanced Liquid Processing System) treated water. It underscores the necessity of fostering common understanding through dialogue, regardless of the issues that arise, and finding a rationale and compromise that can be communicated effectively to domestic audiences on both sides.

In the first place, Japan decided to release the ALPS-treated water in August 2023 in cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), but China strongly opposed the decision, citing the lack of prior coordination between Japan and China, and banned the import of seafood and other products from Japan. Of course, China had been strongly opposed to Japan’s plans since the earlier discussions at the IAEA. However, this international organisation passed Japan’s policy.

China has been conducting an environmental campaign at home, and Chinese President Xi Jinping also mentioned the importance of the safe discharge of treated water from nuclear power plants in his speeches. Consequently, China could only express objections to Japan’s measures within its own borders. Despite a strong protest in August 2023, few countries followed China’s lead. Moreover, while China banned Japanese seafood, Chinese tourists continued to visit Japan and enjoy Japanese seafood.

The Chinese government gradually signalled a willingness to compromise with Japan, eventually expressing its readiness to cooperate with international organisations such as the IAEA to increase inspections conducted by China over the long term. Japan responded positively to this gesture, resulting in the current outcome.

Since Japan had consistently cooperated with the IAEA to address the issue, it believed that while it acknowledged China’s so-called request, there was effectively no change in its policy. In contrast, Chinese media widely reported that Japan had capitulated to China’s demands.

As noted earlier, the backdrop of this “resolution” was to enable both Japan and China to present their positions more easily at home. Despite China’s strong objections to Japan, few countries aligned with China, forcing it to adopt this unusual approach. While China attempted to exert economic pressure on Japan, these efforts were largely ineffective, suggesting that it was seeking a way to de-escalate the situation.

In a press release on 20 September expressing the two countries’ shared recognition, the Japanese side stated that it “welcomes the additional measures on the long-term international monitoring to be taken under the framework of the IAEA at the important stages of the discharge into the sea, based on the interest of all stakeholder countries including China, and ensures that all stakeholder countries including China will effectively participate in that monitoring, thereby their independent sampling and the interlaboratory comparisons (ILC) will be conducted”. This is likely to be important information for the Chinese side.

In the same press release, the Chinese side explained that it had “introduced emergency and precautionary measures to temporarily suspend imports of all aquatic products from Japan based on relevant Chinese laws and WTO rules”. The statement continued, “China will effectively participate in the long-term international monitoring under the framework of the IAEA, and, after conducting the monitoring activities such as the independent sampling by the participating countries, will initiate adjustment of the measures, based on scientific evidence, thereby steadily restoring imports of aquatic products from Japan which meet the standards.”

In a world where trust between Japan and China has been strained by various incidents, whether these food-related promises will be kept will be put to the test. This will also be an issue for the new Japanese government that will soon be formed.

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