Politics

Japan has consistently come up tops in a local research institute’s survey question on trust among ASEAN’s major dialogue partners. This is despite the history of Japan’s relations with countries in the region. But will the status quo remain unchanged? As Japan and ASEAN gear up to mark 50 years of friendship and cooperation next year, how will Japan work to maintain a strong relationship with the region amid growing US-China tensions?

International observers have pushed China’s possible role in the crisis under the spotlight since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The previously touted “no limits” in Russia-China relations has raised concerns over China’s support of Russia as the latter continues its aggression against Ukraine. However, US-based academic Zhou Nongjian believes that this friendship is not unconditional, and there are bottom lines that should not be crossed.

A recent false rumour of an impending lockdown in Shanghai led to panic buying and disorder not usually seen in Shanghai, a well-run city that follows the rules. But it is not so much that people can’t tell fact from fiction, but that recent U-turns by the officials have led people to start relying on the grapevine. What should the authorities do to win back the people’s trust?

How the China-US conflict will end very much depends on the vociferous court of public opinion of each country. At the moment, political correct views are being spewed on both sides. Such behaviour shows a common human weakness to demonise the other and threaten to keep both sides locked in a vortex of vitriol. East Asia Institute academic Lance Gore implores the people of both countries to keep their senses and adhere to their better judgement. In particular, China should be clear-eyed that the combined strength of the US and its allies exceeds any level China may attain in the foreseeable future and act accordingly.

Chinese academic Deng Qingbo believes that the US has never been ambiguous about its policy towards the Taiwan Strait. Theirs has always been a clear policy dictated by the US’s national interests, in particular those of the financial and military-industrial capitalists. The US’s stance in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis supports this view. Are debates about whether the US policy should move from “strategic ambiguity” to "strategic clarity" moot?

Some analyses say that US-China relations may actually improve given the need for the US and the West to seek help from China in dealing with Russia. However, other indications are that recent events are engendering greater mistrust between the two countries, especially now that Congress has approved an omnibus bill that includes banning the use of maps that inaccurately depict Taiwan.

NUS academic Lu Xi notes that following the Russia-Ukraine war, the world will possibly be divided by political ethics, specifically between the idealists and realists who respectively believe in the rule of law and the law of the jungle. In this hypothetical scenario, will small states be able to stay neutral without taking sides? How will they navigate between the big powers and maintain their own national interests?

Online discourse on China’s position in the Russia-Ukraine war is heating up this week as Western and Ukrainian officials criticise China’s ambiguous stance. Meanwhile, the West continues to put pressure on China to declare which side it is on despite Chinese officials’ strong rhetoric that it will judge the matter without external coercion and that the US and NATO should “shoulder their due responsibilities”. Zaobao correspondent Yu Zeyuan discusses how China is justifying its stance of not taking sides.

Though small, Cambodia is a state with agency, says Cambodian researcher Chheang Vannarith. The country has shown that it can stand up for what it believes in at key moments, such as when it decided to co-sponsor the UNGA resolution demanding Russia to withdraw its forces from Ukraine. As ASEAN chair for 2022, it seeks to bridge differences, and even if it has the image of being dominated by close friend China, this does not mean that it will do its every bidding.