Sokvy Rim

Hun Manet, son of Hun Sen, has been named Cambodia’s new prime minister in August. While Cambodia has maintained a close relationship with China during Hun Sen’s rule, how will its new leader negotiate the nation’s foreign relations amid great power rivalry? Cambodian commentator Rim Sokvy says even if the new leadership wants to align more with the West, and improve the transparency and accountability of the nation's bureaucratic system, the current state of domestic politics could hold it back from doing so.

The US’s previous approach of pressuring Cambodia on improving its processes for democratic elections only pushed Cambodia closer to China, says Cambodian researcher Sokvy Rim. Now, with the ruling party dominating politics, the US and the West’s impact looks set to be further diminished. Will China’s influence further increase?

While China appears to be getting further embroiled in the Russia-Ukraine war on the side of Russia and may seek to influence close ally Cambodia to follow suit, the latter does not seem to be easily swayed.

Cambodian commentator Sokvy Rim explains why recent Chinese immigrants in Cambodia are viewed with suspicion and even some dislike despite major Chinese investment flows in Cambodia and related economic benefits.

Sokvy Rim explains why Cambodia’s foreign policy options have been constrained by the leaders’ concerns of regime survival at various stages of its history. If this trajectory continues, it may be hard for it to conduct a hedging strategy in its relations between China and the US.

Cross-strait relations look set to remain tense, with mainland China increasing its military might and the US continuing to provide support to Taiwan, says Cambodian commentator Sokvy Rim. But despite the rhetoric, the mainland will be cautious. Even if Beijing can launch a first strike, the US and its allies will give a formidable response, not forgetting that they are in a position to choke off China’s energy supply route through the Indian Ocean and Strait of Malacca.

Sokvy Rim explains why Vietnam still chooses to adopt a hedging strategy between the US and China, despite increasing fears of China’s aggressive moves in the South China Sea.

For several years now, China has sought to increase its soft power, spending resources to do so, including through providing funding for its Belt and Road Initiative and Confucius Institutes. But its plan has not been very effective, not least because it is often perceived to use coercion more than persuasion. But after conducting rounds of vaccine diplomacy during Covid-19 pandemic, are its efforts finally bearing fruit?

While Cambodia is aware that its close relations with China may leave it vulnerable in many ways, it seems to think that this is still the better bet in light of shaky relations with the US and a historical distrust of Vietnam.