China-Middle East relations

While it is a fact that China and countries in the Middle East region enjoy closer ties, China is still far behind the US in terms of its regional influence. At the same time, the countries are also more attracted to the US and European powerhouses than China. Thus, it would be unwise to overthink the recent slew of visits to Beijing by foreign ministers of countries in the Middle East region.

Unlike the Soviet Union, China has an arsenal of economic tools at its disposal in wooing US allies. This is plainly seen in the UAE-China relationship, in which bilateral trade in 2021 was more than double that of UAE-US trade for the same period. Security and defence ties are also strengthening. As dictated by the laws of the free market, the one who offers the best deal wins. As such, the US will have to do better than just rely on coercive tactics.

Chinese academic Fan Hongda says that following the US troop pullout of Afghanistan, the Taliban have much to do to convince the international community that they can lead the country, and that they can rebuild Afghanistan. Will Taliban rule be any different this time round as compared to 20 years ago? How would China react to the new ruling power in Afghanistan?

With the US in retreat and the Taliban seizing control of Kabul, it looks like Afghanistan and the region will see major security and geopolitical shifts. Where does China stand in all of this and what cautious moves will it make?

Although China has made inroads into the Middle East as a major investor and economic partner, some are suspicious of its intentions in being all things to all countries in this fractious region. Thus, even if there is much hype about its ability to take over the US’s role in the region, China should remember that it still lacks the power and wherewithal to exert a major influence.

From its biased stance towards Palestine in the recent Gaza-Israel conflict and the way it has tried to bring in the Xinjiang issue, it is clear that China is getting its approach to Palestine and Israel all wrong, says Fan Hongda. Amid a vastly changed political landscape in the Middle East, China needs to recalibrate its strategy. Otherwise, not only will it have little influence in the Gaza-Israeli conflict, it will end up on the back foot in defending its affairs in Xinjiang.

The recently signed China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement will be a linchpin for China’s BRI in the Middle East, says Yu Hong. In the best-case scenario, it will be a win-win arrangement, providing Iran with the foreign investment it needs and China the oil supply and strategic influence it hopes to get. However, a number of challenges stand in the way including US sanctions and domestic opposition within Iran.

A 25-year cooperation agreement was signed recently between China and Iran. The West and countries in the Middle East are alarmed by what closer China-Iran ties could mean for their interests, while the Iranians and the Chinese have different reactions to the news. Fan Hongda weighs the pros and cons of the agreement and what it means for all its stakeholders.

As China-US competition continues, economics professor Zhu Ying observes that two camps seem to be emerging. But it is not so straightforward as one camp being pro-US and another pro-China. The trilateral relationships of the US-EU-China and China-US-Russia will create pendulum swings.