China-Middle East relations

Academic Ma Haiyun explains how the Saudi-Iran detente is the experiment and application of China’s GSI with a focus on national and regime security, when Saudi Arabia, Iran and China have been facing increasing security challenges from the US and the West.

China’s success in mediating peace between long-term rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran has highlighted the major power’s role as a key player in security in the Middle East. While some international media take it as a sign of China’s ambitions, academic Fan Hongda feels that the peace deal has addressed a common need for all parties, and China has its own way of promoting peace in the region.

By forging Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement based on the message that economic development goes hand in hand with security stabilisation, China has just strengthened its image as an alternative to the West in the global south.

While China-Middle East cooperation is predicated on strong energy cooperation, other facets will come to the fore as regional geopolitical balancing intensifies. Technology transfer and imparting values for cyberspace are just a few key influences that China hopes to assert in the region. However, an imperative remains that the Gulf looks to the West for its security needs.

Energy security and ensuring that oil and gas retain a significant share of the global energy mix for some time to come are strong ties that bind China-Saudi Arabia relations. Coupled with collaborative opportunities in growth areas such as renewable energy and electricity generation, their partnership seems to be going from strength to strength.

Amid the US-West realignment, developing countries and middle powers have strengthened mutual cooperation via high-level diplomacy. China’s deepening relations with Saudi Arabia and the Arab world as seen by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent high-profile visit to Riyadh is a key sign of this development.

While it is a fact that China and countries in the Middle East region enjoy closer ties, China is still far behind the US in terms of its regional influence. At the same time, the countries are also more attracted to the US and European powerhouses than China. Thus, it would be unwise to overthink the recent slew of visits to Beijing by foreign ministers of countries in the Middle East region.

Unlike the Soviet Union, China has an arsenal of economic tools at its disposal in wooing US allies. This is plainly seen in the UAE-China relationship, in which bilateral trade in 2021 was more than double that of UAE-US trade for the same period. Security and defence ties are also strengthening. As dictated by the laws of the free market, the one who offers the best deal wins. As such, the US will have to do better than just rely on coercive tactics.

Chinese academic Fan Hongda says that following the US troop pullout of Afghanistan, the Taliban have much to do to convince the international community that they can lead the country, and that they can rebuild Afghanistan. Will Taliban rule be any different this time round as compared to 20 years ago? How would China react to the new ruling power in Afghanistan?