Cross-strait relations

China’s third aircraft carrier is not yet nuclear-powered and won’t be battle-ready for some years yet. Besides, in terms of possible warfare, it’s the numerous surface combatants China possesses that the US should be worried about, says Loro Horta. But with every iteration of China’s aircraft carrier, its ambitions of eventually taking on the US in the open Pacific is increasingly clear.

China has recently begun a campaign to say that the Taiwan Strait cannot be considered “international waters” based on the UNCLOS. Zaobao’s associate editor Han Yong Hong sees this as Beijing's way to assert its jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait and that it is ready to boost and expand its scope of military actions over the area.

US academic Wu Guo explains that the US and China have fundamentally different interpretations of the “one China” principle and of the US’s adherence to its “one China” policy. To the Americans, Taiwan’s status has always been unsettled, and it has always advocated a peaceful resolution in the interest of regional stability. President Biden’s recent comments simply strongly affirm that.

Yesterday, Chinese and Russian bombers flew over the Sea of Japan as US President Joe Biden attended the Quad summit in Tokyo. This comes a day after the president said that the US would defend Taiwan militarily if Beijing attacked. In fact, it was Biden's third time in nine months reiterating that message. Was this yet another gaffe, or a signal that the US is ready to drop its “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan? Zaobao correspondent Yang Danxu analyses the situation.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a stark reminder of the possibility that the fate of Taiwan may be eventually decided by military force. For Southeast Asian states, the clear preference is to avoid becoming embroiled in a cross-strait conflict, though it may come at the expense of their own principles and security. Eventually, Southeast Asian states should realise that they cannot treat the threat of a cross-strait war as a distant problem as they stand to face unavoidable political, economic and security risks if the worst-case scenario unfolds.

A trip to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was postponed as she tested positive for Covid-19. Nonetheless, Beijing made the expected protests and the issue is still not over as the visit might be revived in the future. Zaobao correspondent Yu Zeyuan analyses US motives for the proposed visit and how China should appropriately respond to US politicians stirring the pot.

With the Russia-Ukraine war top of mind, Taiwan is moving to ramp up its defence capabilities by lengthening its military service from four months to one year. As a result, parents and young men are trying to bring forward the period of service before the extension is implemented. But how effective will lengthening the period of service be? Zaobao journalist Chuang Hui Liang assesses the combat-readiness of Taiwanese young people.

Chinese academic Deng Qingbo believes that the US has never been ambiguous about its policy towards the Taiwan Strait. Theirs has always been a clear policy dictated by the US’s national interests, in particular those of the financial and military-industrial capitalists. The US’s stance in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis supports this view. Are debates about whether the US policy should move from “strategic ambiguity” to "strategic clarity" moot?

Some analyses say that US-China relations may actually improve given the need for the US and the West to seek help from China in dealing with Russia. However, other indications are that recent events are engendering greater mistrust between the two countries, especially now that Congress has approved an omnibus bill that includes banning the use of maps that inaccurately depict Taiwan.