Australia

As Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese heads to China this weekend, Australia-China relations appear to have improved from their fractious state just a year and a half ago. But it’s too soon to bring out the champagne, says University of Sydney academic Yuan Jingdong.

The recent release of Chinese Australian news anchor Cheng Lei and the lifting of tariffs on key Australian exports into China are signalling a detente in China-Australia relations. But given the impact of external geopolitical issues and China-US relations on China-Australia bilateral relations, will the warming relations and resumption of exchanges and trade stay the course? Lianhe Zaobao’s China Desk looks into the issue.

Former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who had a meteoric rise and just as swift a fall, was thought to have adopted a more measured tone in China’s foreign policy. Are fears of a return to wolf warrior diplomacy under Wang Yi unfounded? Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Edwin Ong assesses the situation.

Australia made extensive diplomatic overtures to Asia prior to its March update about the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine arrangement with the UK and the US, note researchers Blake Herzinger and Alice Nason. Canberra appears to have gained some traction in the region, but it should not rest on its laurels.

The recent elections in Fiji resulted in the first democratic transition since 2014 after three opposition parties narrowly voted for a pro–Western coalition government with Sitiveni Rabuka as the new prime minister. The election outcome also has geopolitical implications considering the growing US-China confrontation in the Pacific and the renewed US re-engagement in the South Pacific with a focus on Fiji.

Susannah Patton, director of the Southeast Asia Program at Lowy Institute, reflects on the thaw in Australia-China relations, surmising that the resumption of dialogue may mean Australia is no longer a regional outlier. But unchanging imperatives may see Australia’s continued investment in capabilities for the regional deterrence of China, which may worry some in Southeast Asia.

Japanese academic Shin Kawashima assesses the joint statement and joint declaration issued by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently, observing a strengthening of relations amid common interests.

Beijing’s recent moves to establish security cooperation with Pacific island states have riled the US and Australia. Among the places that China has made moves is the Solomon Islands, where Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US security advisor Kurt Campbell have each visited within the past three months. ASEAN needs to closely watch the ongoing great power competition there to draw lessons for its own security.

Australia has made significant inroads in its engagement with ASEAN. But Canberra’s relationship with the grouping will be a hard slog, given their differences in approaching China and ensuring that China-US rivalry does not derail regional aspirations. In the meantime, Australia remains involved with the US in groupings including AUKUS and the Quad, maintaining relations with Japan and India.