South China Sea

US-China tensions have heightened in the aftermath of the Chinese balloon incident. The Republicans are seizing the opportunity to criticise the Biden administration over the threat to national security, while China accuses the US of overreacting and violating the spirit of international law and international practice. Zaobao correspondent Yang Danxu notes that if the situation is not managed properly, the strained relations could have an impact on other issues, such as the South China Sea.

In the event of hostilities in the Taiwan Strait, Manila’s defence treaty with the US will give it little room to manoeuvre. Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s recent visit to China underscores his intent to have a constructive relationship with China, and it remains to be seen how the Philippines will navigate its relationships with both the China and the US.

Researcher Peng Nian notes that China’s efforts to strengthen its relations with ASEAN through building a “community with a shared future for mankind” could ramp up as its borders reopen. While it may take time for the ASEAN member states to open their arms again to China, progress is far from being at a standstill.

At the G20 Summit held in Bali under the Indonesian G20 presidency, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indonesian President Joko Widodo showed warmth when witnessing remotely the test run of the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail and undertaking bilateral talks. However, while economic relations are on a strong and steady track, sovereignty issues in the South China Sea continue to be a thorn in one’s side.

George Yeo, Singapore’s former foreign minister, delivered the Goh Keng Swee Lecture on Modern China to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute on 15 December. In covering issues of the day such as China-US rivalry, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the South China Sea, he concludes that a multipolar world is good for both China and the US. This is the full transcript of his speech.

China’s ratification of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) not only helped Beijing to adapt to contemporary global ocean governance, but also reinforced the importance for China to develop a maritime strategy to safeguard its maritime rights and interests. For instance despite China’s rejection of the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling of the Philippines’ case against China in the case of the South China Sea, it still refers to UNCLOS (rather than simply dismisses it) to explain its decision. It can be expected that UNCLOS can be a tool of political contestation in the great power competition between Beijing and Washington.

Diplomatic activities appear to be back at full swing after the 20th Party Congress. Zaobao correspondent Yang Danxu notes that the visits by heads of states to China are driven by Beijing’s objectives of bringing its neighbours close, stabilising relations with Europe, and strengthening relations with developing countries. Will this help improve China’s relations and international image, especially amid the tense geopolitical background?

Philippine academic Renato Cruz De Castro asserts that the Philippines will have to fall back on the strength of the Philippines-US alliance in the face of a possible US-China armed stand-off in the Taiwan Strait.

As the 20th Party Congress approaches, US academic Robert S. Ross assesses China’s foreign policy record over the last ten years and weighs up China’s foreign policy priorities in the likely third term of President Xi Jinping’s leadership. This is the last in a five-part series of articles on the future of China.