Security

While China-Middle East cooperation is predicated on strong energy cooperation, other facets will come to the fore as regional geopolitical balancing intensifies. Technology transfer and imparting values for cyberspace are just a few key influences that China hopes to assert in the region. However, an imperative remains that the Gulf looks to the West for its security needs.

Worsening cross-strait relations in recent times have generated anxiety about imminent conflict across the Taiwan Straits. During a three-month stint in Taiwan as the recipient of a Taiwan fellowship, RSIS academic Benjamin Ho observed that what is at stake for Taipei is not so much the threat from China per se but how domestic cleavages relating to Taiwan’s political identity complicate efforts to arrive at a modus vivendi with Beijing.

Lianhe Zaobao journalist Miao Zong-Han notes that tensions in the Taiwan Strait last year reached an all-time high amid the visit by then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the subsequent military exercise around Taiwan by the People’s Liberation Army. In the upcoming year, mainland China’s policies towards Taiwan, the US factor, along with the campaign for Taiwan’s presidential elections are key variables that could affect cross-strait relations and are worth keeping tabs on.

While Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s 3-5 Jan visit to Beijing reaped economic opportunities, it was also a missed opportunity to leverage the 2016 arbitral award, says Philippine academic Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby. The onus rests on the Philippines to keep the West Philippine Sea on the agenda, and there are several steps the Marcos administration should keep in mind in doing so.

The recent elections in Fiji resulted in the first democratic transition since 2014 after three opposition parties narrowly voted for a pro–Western coalition government with Sitiveni Rabuka as the new prime minister. The election outcome also has geopolitical implications considering the growing US-China confrontation in the Pacific and the renewed US re-engagement in the South Pacific with a focus on Fiji.

According to a development plan for China’s software and information technology (IT) service industry from 2021 to 2025, China is expected to significantly expand its capacity for developing key software and build two to three open-source communities with international influence by 2025. Meanwhile, China’s giant state-owned enterprises are also rushing to crank up domestic purchases of innovative IT applications under government pressure.

US academic Zhu Zhiqun notes that the US is still trying to exert pressure on its allies to follow its moves to suppress China. However, China is the largest trading partner of over 120 countries. These countries will never forsake their cooperation with China to accommodate the US. In fact, the trend of countries actively developing economic and trade relations with China while maintaining a security partnership with the US looks set to stay.

Analyst John Lee assesses the impact of US chip controls on China, pointing out the little likelihood of complete decoupling, especially in areas out of high-end chips. Despite the restrictions, China has options of its own but the tides could change at any minute in this “competition to win the 21st century”.

Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is booming, but its pole position is at risk. With the industry deemed of national security concern, China, the US and the EU are implementing restrictive measures, upping their investment and aiming for autonomy and self-sufficiency in the sector, which could cause Taiwan to lose its competitive edge.