China-Russia ties

It seems that the longer the war in Ukraine drags on, the more dependent Russia will be on China. After more than three centuries of Russia-China relations, it seems that the situation is coming full circle and Russia is becoming increasingly subordinate to China.

Chinese academic Deng Xize notes that the Mongol and Russian empires were very similar in origin and nature, but the conditions that allowed their rise and spread no longer exist today, leading to their inevitable decline. The global reaction to the war in Ukraine in fact shows that such empires will no longer be tolerated.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan highlights his bid to advance his vision of the China dream. This, however, will require changes in the global balance of power that countries around the world, including Southeast Asian countries, will find hard to manage. How will China proceed from here, and will it be able to win allies along the way?

Zaobao correspondent Yu Zeyuan analyses the outcomes of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit held in Uzbekistan and the implications of China’s perceived stronger courting of the Central Asia region.

China seems to be pulling back while Russia wants to take a step forward, as seen from the Xi-Putin parlay at their meeting in Uzbekistan. But the delicate dance is not only at the surface level of the Ukraine war, but China’s deeper strategic goals in Central Asia, where Russia considers itself a dominant power.

China has doubled down on its alignment with Russia against the West. This has led to a proliferation of minilaterals and security partnerships aligned with the US. China's launch of its Global Security Initiative is not helping to assuage Western worries of Chinese ambitions and countries in the region are also wary. What will this mean for Southeast Asia?

Former journalist Goh Choon Kang says that despite having international law and organisations to improve global governance, the law of the jungle still applies in the 21st century. And small states such as Singapore will invariably be caught between powers such as the US, China and Russia to varying degrees. And in the multipolar internet age, even if one is not embroiled in a real physical war, an online war of opinions could also impact societies across the world.

Southeast Asia’s initial responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine varied considerably, with Singapore taking the strongest stance and Myanmar supporting the Kremlin’s actions. As the conflict intensified, regional responses strengthened somewhat: eight ASEAN members voted for a United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Moscow’s invasion; Vietnam and Laos, Russia’s two closest partners in the region, abstained. The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to have varying degrees of economic, political and security impacts on the region. A key concern is if China takes a leaf from Russia's playbook in terms of using manufactured histories and grey zone/hybrid warfare tactics, and disregarding international law.

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine just about two weeks old, a war of words has broken out between the US and China over the alleged presence of US biowarfare research facilities in Ukraine. China seems to be throwing in its lot in with Russia, calling for the US to come clean and to allow multilateral inspections. Zaobao correspondent Edwin Ong analyses the recent developments, which is reminiscent of the bickering that ensued when Wuhan lab-leak accusations were heaped on China two years ago.