Military power

Amid the ongoing US-China rivalry, both powers have been sending their navies on exercises in the Yellow Sea, as a signal to each side, stopping just short of actual engagement. This mirrors earlier near-confrontations. Is this all just military posturing ahead of a possible Xi Jinping-Joe Biden summit before the end of the year?

Japanese academic Sugiura Yasuyuki notes that Beijing has been normalising military activities around Taiwan, and these activities seem to be heading towards actual combat, while being used for propaganda. One clear example is the recent Exercise "Joint Sword" in April 2023. There are increasing concerns that such activities will cause issues between China and the US, or China and Taiwan.

Chinese academic Chu Zhaogen notes that while Russia tends to threaten the use of nuclear weapons, especially amid the current war in Ukraine, chances are that it is well aware that doing so would invite unwelcome and devastating consequences. This makes it unlikely that it will actually act on its rhetoric.

Although the US Navy’s aircraft carrier fleet dwarfs that of China in quantity, quality and combat experience, the closer the US fleet gets to the Chinese coast the more vulnerable it becomes.

In per capita terms, China may seem more like a developing country than the might of its overall economic, technological and military prowess suggests. Be that as it may, the duality of its identity suits the CCP’s purpose in trumpeting China’s strengths at home while holding on to the right to developing country status benefits internationally. While the US will be keen to strip China of such flexibility, China will likely fight tooth and nail to keep this advantage.

Japanese academic Masaaki Yatsuzuka finds China’s explanations and criticism of the US in the aftermath of the balloon incident unpersuasive, more so in light of its military-civilian fusion strategy.

Japan is considering the deployment of non-nuclear counter-strike capabilities in the face of growing threats from North Korea and China. Japanese academic Yoichiro Sato believes that for Southeast Asian countries, this might be a win-win situation in terms of maintaining the region’s non-nuclear stance, yet retaining the option of bringing US-Japanese allied capabilities to bear in contingencies.

The People’s Liberation Army Air Force is showcasing its air combat capabilities during the 14th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, with static displays and aerial demonstrations for its advanced military drones, fighter jets and other military weapons and equipment. From boasting of a fully China-made fighter jet, to its home-designed drones, the developments in China’s air combat power shows the impact of the geopolitical situation on the military industry.

As the 20th Party Congress approaches, US academic Robert S. Ross assesses China’s foreign policy record over the last ten years and weighs up China’s foreign policy priorities in the likely third term of President Xi Jinping’s leadership. This is the last in a five-part series of articles on the future of China.