China-US trade war

With Covid-19 uncertainty and downturns pummelling its export-dependent economy, China’s leaders are trying to steer companies towards the domestic market instead. This may seem like a case of putting old wine in a new bottle, as China has tried this route before. Significant challenges are proving yet again that achieving export sales domestically is no mean feat. Can export-driven companies brave the storm while they reinvent themselves and recover?

In a recent report outlining its approach to China, the US indicated that it will be guided by “principled realism” in strategic competition with China. Chinese academic Yu Zhi believes that this is a sign of the two countries moving into a “curtailment and containment” phase in their relations. Whoever the next President is, the US line on China looks set to hold. This stance harks back to the beginning of US-China relations, albeit with some adjustments. In any event, both countries are bracing themselves for a rough ride ahead.

The proposed national security law for Hong Kong is speedily moving along, with the draft text recently reviewed at the 19th session of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress. Nonetheless, US researcher Wei Da says that this issue is a trigger point that impinges on bottom lines that could set off serious conflict and repercussions in the Taiwan Strait. Is the onset of a hot war unfolding before our eyes?

Zaobao associate editor Han Yong Hong explains why for all of President Trump’s perceived flaws, China may not necessarily prefer a change to the US leadership.

China academic Zhang Jie notes that the fates and fortunes of China and the US are intertwined. Being in the same boat, the two should pull in the same direction and row well together. Anything else may catapult China and the US on the road to decoupling and further conflict, creating risks not only for themselves, but the world. In that regard, China managing relations with a constellation of key players such as Japan, South Korea and the EU will prove pivotal in guarding against accidental slippages into hot war.

Political scientist Zhu Zhiqun traces the downward spiral of China-Australia relations made worse by the Covid-19 outbreak. From Australia’s perspective, much of it stems from fear, both its own and projected from the US, of the China threat. Despite the gloom, all is not lost if both sides choose to focus on what binds the two societies together, rather than what drives them apart.

Walter Woon, Singapore's former ambassador to Germany and the European Union observes America's ongoing Confrontation with the PRC, a returning power. He says indiscriminate attacks on "the Chinese" will provoke a nationalist backlash fuelled by the memory of historical oppression and racism. This Confrontation will consume resources better utilised to recover from Covid-19. It is necessary that one learns the lessons of history to avoid one's downfall.

China is speeding up its construction of a “domestic circulation system” to complement its international efforts, in a bid to protect itself from any anticipated effects of decoupling from global supply chains. If the world wishes to cut itself off from China, it seems to say, so be it, as it can make its own plans.

Nonagenarian Mochtar Riady, founder of Lippo Group in Indonesia, shared his views on “New Challenges and Opportunities in a Post-Covid-19 World” at a webinar yesterday. He believes that with its combined strength, ASEAN can weather any potential headwinds of deglobalisation. And contrary to what others predict, China’s place in global supply chains is firmly anchored and the country looks set to play a leading role in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.