While China’s prospects for better economic performance in 2023 are bright, says NUS academic Xu Le, the road to economic recovery is expected to be bumpy.
This year’s dramatic geopolitical changes have significantly altered the calculus for foreign investment in China as large European enterprises are increasingly taking the lead and Japanese businesses are retreating in manufacturing and advancing in services. American companies, on the other hand, are frozen as the US government imposes tough sanctions on China’s tech sector and as manufacturers weigh strategic moves back to the US.
Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is booming, but its pole position is at risk. With the industry deemed of national security concern, China, the US and the EU are implementing restrictive measures, upping their investment and aiming for autonomy and self-sufficiency in the sector, which could cause Taiwan to lose its competitive edge.
Despite challenges arising from the slowing Chinese economy, China is likely to continue pushing forward on the BRI, it being a key plank of President Xi Jinping’s foreign policy. Along the way, however, it will have to make certain adjustments for a smooth transition into BRI 2.0.
Out of the ashes of a changing global order could rise a growing China-Russia alliance, says East Asian Institute senior researcher Lance Gore. Such a prospect is made possible by the common ground they share, including having a victim complex, harbouring resentment towards the West and aspiring to regain their past grandeur. However, the two civilisations are very different and there could still be a misalignment of objectives. In light of the obstacles, will their relationship stay a strategic partnership that goes no further?
Political commentator Jin Jian Guo believes that the semiconductor Great Leap Forward pushed by the Chinese authorities could have the same devastating effects as the Great Leap Forward of the past. In an industry that is globally interconnected, persisting with the impossible endeavour of becoming fully self-reliant would only result in further instances of failing to learn from history.
Extreme weather and declining water levels at hydropower reservoirs in Sichuan are sparking worries of a power crunch across China. This has forced electricity cuts to businesses and households in the province of 84 million people, along with loud calls for a rethink of coal in the nation’s energy mix, putting a spanner in the works of its goal to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030.
Amid a world shaken by global events, President Jokowi has done his fair share of shuttle diplomacy in the lead-up to the G20 Summit in Bali later this year. While Indonesia has the potential to play an intermediary role among global powers, it remains circumspect and looks to push forward the G20 agenda in incremental and achievable steps.
Ukrainian academic Olga Brusylovska explains why the world economy and food supply are in turmoil from the Russia-Ukraine war, and how the war is also affecting China-Ukraine relations and China's trade and investments in Ukraine.