Germany

As the world marks one year of the war in Ukraine this month, commentator Jin Jian Guo looks at how the global situation has changed in that time, within the European continent and in the world at large. It is clear that in various aspects, Russia is not in a promising position, and China, as a pole that challenges the American order, will face significant obstacles.

Tensions in China-US relations are increasing, with the Taiwan Strait issue central to the antagonism between the two major powers. Chinese academic Guo Bingyun assesses four models from history that the US may adopt in the event of an armed reunification, and why these approaches may or may not be effective.

French academic Philippe Le Corre notes that France and China’s fairly close relationship seems to have eroded in recent years, mainly due to market access issues and the gaping trade deficit. While President Macron’s visit in 2023 could change the situation, France currently has no clear advantage over other powers in dealing with China.

This year’s dramatic geopolitical changes have significantly altered the calculus for foreign investment in China as large European enterprises are increasingly taking the lead and Japanese businesses are retreating in manufacturing and advancing in services. American companies, on the other hand, are frozen as the US government imposes tough sanctions on China’s tech sector and as manufacturers weigh strategic moves back to the US.

Analysing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent visit to China, former journalist Goh Choon Kang offers the view that Germany — along with much of Europe — has been “weaponised” by the US for its own aims, whether in terms of China policy or the war in Ukraine. This is a clear lesson for other countries, those in Southeast Asia included.

Thorsten Benner of the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) in Berlin points out that unlike former Chancellor Merkel, current German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has invested a lot of time into building closer connections with Asian partners. This fits in with his worldview of multiple emerging global powers, and the need to foster resilience, diversification and “de-risking” in achieving economic security vis-a-vis China.

Diplomatic activities appear to be back at full swing after the 20th Party Congress. Zaobao correspondent Yang Danxu notes that the visits by heads of states to China are driven by Beijing’s objectives of bringing its neighbours close, stabilising relations with Europe, and strengthening relations with developing countries. Will this help improve China’s relations and international image, especially amid the tense geopolitical background?

China’s American and European partners do not seem keen on granting China a “stable external environment” during the 20th Party Congress. With diplomatic sparring ratcheting up, Xi’s new team will have its work cut out when the congress ends in a few days’ time.

Economics professor Zhu Ying notes that even though Germany is economically dependent on China, its stand is changing due to the war in Ukraine, with China being seen as supportive of Russia’s invasion that goes against shared universal values. All in all, Germany’s increasing focus on values rather than economic interests is having a spillover effect on China.