Philippines

China takes a dim view of Manila’s decision to grant the US access to four military bases. While the two allies have framed the arrangement as bolstering deterrence vis-à-vis China, such a move is unlikely to deter Beijing.

The locus of superpower rivalry in the Indo-Pacific has gone down to the subnational level. The US and China are engaged in a power competition for influence within local governments in the Philippines, not least in the Cagayan area.

The Marcos Jr administration’s defence cooperation policy that hews closer to the US is facing domestic criticism, even from his sister. China is also growing increasingly uncomfortable with recent moves between the Philippines and the US, and posturing that suggests that the Philippines could be enlisted to part of the "China containment club".

Philippine academic Renato Cruz De Castro discusses the prospect of a trilateral Japan-US-Philippines defence pact and the US's building of informal trilateral networks in the Asia Pacific to safeguard its interests against China. However, he notes that there are practical issues to be resolved before a formal agreement can materialise.

Chinese academic Peng Nian looks at the US expanding its access to new military bases in the Philippines, which China is particularly concerned with. He says that while the Philippines want to find a sweet spot in navigating China-US competition, it must be extra vigilant in dealing with security cooperation with the US in the South China Sea so as not to aggravate China-Philippines relations.

Closer Japan-Philippines security cooperation announced during Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos’ visit to Japan this month augurs closer trilateral US-Japan-Philippines cooperation in defending each of their interests against China, says Japanese academic Masafumi Iida.

In the event of hostilities in the Taiwan Strait, Manila’s defence treaty with the US will give it little room to manoeuvre. Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s recent visit to China underscores his intent to have a constructive relationship with China, and it remains to be seen how the Philippines will navigate its relationships with both the China and the US.

While Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s 3-5 Jan visit to Beijing reaped economic opportunities, it was also a missed opportunity to leverage the 2016 arbitral award, says Philippine academic Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby. The onus rests on the Philippines to keep the West Philippine Sea on the agenda, and there are several steps the Marcos administration should keep in mind in doing so.

In the Philippines, digital disinformation campaigns have become central to electoral politics. Unfortunately, their use of vitriolic and socially divisive techniques has become increasingly normalised in the country’s politics, as these techniques are put into play even between national voting seasons.