Philippines

Philippines and US soldiers salute in front of their national flags while their national anthems are played during the opening ceremony of the 'Balikatan' joint military exercise at the military headquarters in Quezon City, suburban Manila on 11 April 2023. (Ted Aljibe/AFP)

US new military bases: China-Philippine relations on downward spiral?

China takes a dim view of Manila’s decision to grant the US access to four military bases. While the two allies have framed the arrangement as bolstering deterrence vis-à-vis China, such a move is unlikely to deter Beijing.
A sailor stands on the deck of the USS America (LHA-6) amphibious assault ship docked at a port in Manila, Philippines, 21 March 2023. (Adrian Portugal/Reuters)

US and China fight for influence in strategic provinces of the Philippines

The locus of superpower rivalry in the Indo-Pacific has gone down to the subnational level. The US and China are engaged in a power competition for influence within local governments in the Philippines, not least in the Cagayan area.
Philippines and US officers link arms during the opening ceremony of US-Philippines Arm-to-Army exercise at Fort Magsaysay, in Nueva Ecija province, north of Manila on 13 March 2023. (Ted Aljibe/AFP)

Is Philippine President Marcos Jr swinging too far back to the US?

The Marcos Jr administration’s defence cooperation policy that hews closer to the US is facing domestic criticism, even from his sister. China is also growing increasingly uncomfortable with recent moves between the Philippines and the US, and posturing that suggests that the Philippines could be enlisted to part of the "China containment club".
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (left) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (right) conclude their joint press remarks after their talks at prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, 9 February 2023. Kimimasa Mayama/Pool via Reuters)

The US-Japan-Philippines triad: Part of the US's trilateral security networks around China

Philippine academic Renato Cruz De Castro discusses the prospect of a trilateral Japan-US-Philippines defence pact and the US's building of informal trilateral networks in the Asia Pacific to safeguard its interests against China. However, he notes that there are practical issues to be resolved before a formal agreement can materialise.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III (right) meets Philippines President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. (left) at the Malacanang presidential palace in Manila, Philippines, 2 February 2023. (Jam Sta Rosa/Pool via Reuters)

Chinese academic: The Philippines' closer ties with US could cross China's bottom line

Chinese academic Peng Nian looks at the US expanding its access to new military bases in the Philippines, which China is particularly concerned with. He says that while the Philippines want to find a sweet spot in navigating China-US competition, it must be extra vigilant in dealing with security cooperation with the US in the South China Sea so as not to aggravate China-Philippines relations.
Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr (left) and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (right) listen to their national anthems at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo on 9 February 2023. (Yoshikazu Tsuno/AFP)

Closer trilateral US-Japan-Philippines ties to protect security interests against China

Closer Japan-Philippines security cooperation announced during Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos’ visit to Japan this month augurs closer trilateral US-Japan-Philippines cooperation in defending each of their interests against China, says Japanese academic Masafumi Iida.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (centre) is seen on a video screen as he salutes in front of the troops during the 87th anniversary celebration of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, at the military headquarters in Quezon City in suburban Manila on 19 December 2022. (Ted Aljibe/AFP)

It's hard for the Philippines to stay neutral in a Taiwan contingency

In the event of hostilities in the Taiwan Strait, Manila’s defence treaty with the US will give it little room to manoeuvre. Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s recent visit to China underscores his intent to have a constructive relationship with China, and it remains to be seen how the Philippines will navigate its relationships with both the China and the US.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. review the honour guard during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 4 January 2023. (CNS photo via Reuters)

Between economy and security: Does the Philippines' Marcos Jr have a choice?

While Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s 3-5 Jan visit to Beijing reaped economic opportunities, it was also a missed opportunity to leverage the 2016 arbitral award, says Philippine academic Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby. The onus rests on the Philippines to keep the West Philippine Sea on the agenda, and there are several steps the Marcos administration should keep in mind in doing so.
People shop at a public market in Manila, Philippines, 22 November 2022. (Lisa Marie David/Reuters)

Does stoking anti-Chinese sentiment yield political gain in the Philippines?

In the Philippines, digital disinformation campaigns have become central to electoral politics. Unfortunately, their use of vitriolic and socially divisive techniques has become increasingly normalised in the country’s politics, as these techniques are put into play even between national voting seasons.