New Cold War

Commentator William He analyses reactions to a Chinese balloon being detected in US airspace, and US-China relations being hit by another cold snap. Are we going back to Cold War times?

Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is booming, but its pole position is at risk. With the industry deemed of national security concern, China, the US and the EU are implementing restrictive measures, upping their investment and aiming for autonomy and self-sufficiency in the sector, which could cause Taiwan to lose its competitive edge.

The US’s recent release of its new National Security Strategy (NSS) represents its vow to outcompete its rivals, especially China, on the international stage. Political commentator Jin Jian Guo says that the ideological tussle between China and the US is becoming a new Cold War and for the NSS to be released during the period of China’s 20th Party Congress, the starter’s pistol has been fired in a strategic competition where there can only be one winner.

At the Boao Forum, Chinese President Xi Jinping put forth the Global Security Initiative which has the concept of “indivisible security” at its core. Is this China’s answer to breaking up “small cliques” in international relations and seeking to build a community of common destiny for mankind?

Researcher Wei Da notes that the end of the Cold War left many questions unanswered, including the role of ideological tussles and the clash of civilisations. Among other things, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine shows that a truly strong state is one with a limited government and a developed civil society. The international community has been jolted into action, and it is time to recognise that there is still some way to go to achieve modernisation.

Economics professor Zhu Ying observes that since US-China relations reached their high point after former President Trump's visit to Beijing in 2017, China-US relations have seen three splits, each driven by the trade war, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine respectively. Amid tense relations and set identities that have been formed, one can only hope that the US and China do not stumble into a hot war.

Fifty years after Nixon's visit to China, some Western analysts have opined that China is tilting back towards Russia, and the new Cold War has begun. However, Chinese analyst Zheng Weibin believes that the current Ukraine crisis actually marks the true end of the Cold War. Not only would Russia be less effective with exerting its influence over its former republics, but the West has demonstrated stronger unity. He cautions that while the West likes to liken China to Russia, the two are totally different kinds of nations with very different mindsets. To move forward and achieve mutual growth, both China and the West need to put aside the Cold War mentality and embrace the current world for what it is.

While some China observers believe that China has sought to displace America from the regional and global order and possesses a grand strategy in the military, political and economic realms, Indian researcher Hemant Adlakha asks if this sense of threat is a mistaken perception or even a grand illusion. But even as the Chinese repeatedly deny such ambitions, Washington looks set to tighten the noose around Beijing. In such an event, China will be left with no choice but to challenge the US twin strategies of encirclement and containment.

Recent comments by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have people speculating if Japan is taking a more hawkish stance on Taiwan. Japan-based academic Zhang Yun explains that this is a combination of factional politics between the liberal-leaning Kochikai faction led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the neo-conservatives within the LDP, as well as the dynamics of Japan’s relationship with the US and China. With the 50th anniversary of the normalisation of diplomatic ties between Japan and China taking place next year, will the Taiwan card be further in play?