Russia

With North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia recently, observers worry that North Korea and Russia, together with China, are drawing closer, forming a greater “axis” of nuclear threat. But academic Jin Kai sees the sense of a greater “alliance” forming as all part of the US and its allies’ “geopolitical imagination”, which could see them taking steps that escalate the situation in the Korean peninsula.

The solidarity between North Korea and Russia based on an “anti-imperialist” or anti-American mindset can be said to be a strategic and simple construct: “An enemy’s friend is an enemy.” 

The recent 15th BRICS summit held in South Africa heralded an expanded organisation with new African members. While China seeks to increase its presence and influence on the African continent, it also faces the difficult task of juggling security and development, particularly given that Russia is likewise adamant about safeguarding and expanding its own interests in the area.

Chinese academic Chu Zhaogen notes that while Russia tends to threaten the use of nuclear weapons, especially amid the current war in Ukraine, chances are that it is well aware that doing so would invite unwelcome and devastating consequences. This makes it unlikely that it will actually act on its rhetoric.

With China-Russia trade leaping many-fold since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both sides have forged stronger cross-border transport and freight links, says US academic Chen Xiangming. However, this comes with challenges, due to Russia’s historical orientation toward Europe and severely underdeveloped Far Eastern regional and local economies.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s likely absence from the upcoming G20 summit in New Delhi sends a message, amid tensions with India. However, it also means that there is less of an opportunity for China to engage with the US. Does this also mean that China is less interested in talking to the US, or is it leaving that encounter for later at the upcoming APEC summit in San Francisco?

The world's map of global governance and security architecture is shifting, and BRICS is heeding the call for change, says academic Alessandro Arduino. Countries like Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, who have just been invited to join BRICS, seek to diversify their strategic options. This is in line with China's outreach to the global south and Russia’s need to combat international isolation, but the other BRICS members may have some hesitation.

It would be a mistake to think that the soon-to-be 11-member BRICS would unite to become a formidable coordinating force at the international level, says Lianhe Zaobao associate editor Han Yong Hong.

With China intensifying its interest in the Arctic’s Northern Sea Route, India also looks to subtly increase its cooperation with Russia in the shipping route which can significantly reduce sailing time between Europe and Asia. But India has strategic reasons of its own to do so.