The US’s long-running policy of strategic ambiguity towards the Taiwan Strait has created a delicate balance on the Taiwan issue, and the US believes that with ambiguity, Beijing will think twice about taking military action against Taiwan, as it can never be sure if the Americans will come to Taiwan's aid. However, with the Ukraine war, some Taiwanese and Americans are questioning the effectiveness of strategic ambiguity. Since Russia has attacked Ukraine without the latter joining NATO, wouldn't Beijing do the same to Taiwan even if the latter does not declare de jure independence? They ask: Isn't it time to review the strategic ambiguity policy?
Russia
Politics
Former journalist Goh Choon Kang says that despite having international law and organisations to improve global governance, the law of the jungle still applies in the 21st century. And small states such as Singapore will invariably be caught between powers such as the US, China and Russia to varying degrees. And in the multipolar internet age, even if one is not embroiled in a real physical war, an online war of opinions could also impact societies across the world.
Politics
Southeast Asia’s initial responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine varied considerably, with Singapore taking the strongest stance and Myanmar supporting the Kremlin’s actions. As the conflict intensified, regional responses strengthened somewhat: eight ASEAN members voted for a United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Moscow’s invasion; Vietnam and Laos, Russia’s two closest partners in the region, abstained. The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to have varying degrees of economic, political and security impacts on the region. A key concern is if China takes a leaf from Russia's playbook in terms of using manufactured histories and grey zone/hybrid warfare tactics, and disregarding international law.
Politics
At the emergency special session of the UN General Assembly, 141 out of 193 countries voted in favour of condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, including eight ASEAN countries. In the main, this demonstrates ASEAN member countries' belief in international law and the principles of upholding sovereignty and territorial integrity. As for China, its support for Russia seems to go against its own concerns of separatist movements in Xinjiang and the Taiwan issue. It is clear that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not "someone else's affair". If the delicate East Asian order is to be preserved, ASEAN and East Asian countries need to be firm in their stand against Russia.
Politics
With the Russian invasion of Ukraine just about two weeks old, a war of words has broken out between the US and China over the alleged presence of US biowarfare research facilities in Ukraine. China seems to be throwing in its lot in with Russia, calling for the US to come clean and to allow multilateral inspections. Zaobao correspondent Edwin Ong analyses the recent developments, which is reminiscent of the bickering that ensued when Wuhan lab-leak accusations were heaped on China two years ago.
Politics
While the annual Two Sessions are supposed to be a major event in China’s calendar, Zaobao correspondent Yang Danxu notes that this year’s meetings seem even more staid than usual because of the elephants in the room, not least Ukraine. Coupled with delegates delivering public lines, China’s deliberative process remains more than a little opaque despite the media attention.
Politics
Since the Cold War, one of the most common methods used by the US to reprimand “authoritarian” or “irresponsible” countries is to impose economic sanctions. However, the economic sanctions imposed on North Korea, Iran and Russia over the past decades have not seemed to work, nor have any of these countries given in to the US. Japan-based academic Zhang Yun analyses why sanctions have lost their hold on these countries, and why the US is still keen to use them as a coercion tool.
Politics
Afghanistan has proved to be a quagmire, whether for the British, Russians or Americans. While it seems that the US exit leaves a power vacuum eagerly filled by regional challengers, Afghanistan’s unique set of attributes seems to be running strategic stakeholders ragged. In the event, the Afghan exception could offer lessons for constraining rivals in other spheres such as the Taiwan Strait.
Economy
China’s Two Sessions annual meetings commenced this week amid the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The government work report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang outlined the key theme of “stability first” for China's economic growth and geopolitical outlook. Despite some calls for an armed reunification with Taiwan, Zaobao correspondent Yu Zeyuan says that nothing can distract China from its priority for stability, as it progresses towards building a modern China by 2035 amid challenges in its internal and external affairs.