NATO

It is likely that China got more than it bargained for in the Ukraine conflict that is looking to be more protracted than either Russia or China expected. In this scenario, it finds itself in the awkward situation of professing to stand by its principles yet showing tacit support for Russia. It still has options, but the unity that Europe and the UN has shown in condemning Russia should also put China on notice.

Fifty years after Nixon's visit to China, some Western analysts have opined that China is tilting back towards Russia, and the new Cold War has begun. However, Chinese analyst Zheng Weibin believes that the current Ukraine crisis actually marks the true end of the Cold War. Not only would Russia be less effective with exerting its influence over its former republics, but the West has demonstrated stronger unity. He cautions that while the West likes to liken China to Russia, the two are totally different kinds of nations with very different mindsets. To move forward and achieve mutual growth, both China and the West need to put aside the Cold War mentality and embrace the current world for what it is.

Russia’s military attack on Ukraine has shocked the world. While China has said that it does not wish to choose sides in the ongoing war, it has also refused to label Russia's military operation as an “invasion”. Zaobao correspondent Yu Zeyuan observes that the majority of online discourse in China is also unsurprisingly pro-Russia. As Russia’s strongest ally, China is maintaining a fine balance in the development of events in order to hold on to its "strategic advantage".

President Vladimir Putin had set the stage for Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine by couching the country’s relations with Ukraine in ethnocentric terms. Would military action taken in the name of reuniting “one people” give a psychological boost to Beijing in terms of a possible armed reunification with Taiwan?

President Vladimir Putin of Russia declared the start of a “special military operation” in Ukraine on 24 February, saying that he would seek to demilitarise the country. According to reports, Russian troops have attacked Ukraine from Belarus as well as Russia with Belarusian support, and an attack was also being launched from annexed Crimea. Amid the unfolding situation, US-based academic Zhou Nongjian thinks that China needs to maintain a balanced approach towards Russia's military action — while China may benefit as a bystander, a close neighbour that is expanding unreservedly could mean trouble in the future.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he considers Russia, Ukraine and Belarus one people, and its recent actions concerning Ukraine are unsettling. Some in China support the strong and aggressive style of Putin and are glad that Russia has created a buffer to divert the West’s attention away from China. Nevertheless, Russia’s aggressive stance has resulted in 40 years of suffering and failure. US-based academic Zhou Nongjian looks into Russia's intentions with Ukraine and why it is adamant on restoring the former glory of the Soviet Union.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have met face to face ahead of the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics on 4 February against the background of Russia-Ukraine tensions. According to Chinese state media, they discussed Sino-Russian relations and a series of major issues concerning international strategic security and stability. It appears that a new deal for more Russian gas to be supplied to China was also a highlight of the discussions. Zaobao’s associate editor Han Yong Hong explains why it is not China's aim to goad Russia on or get involved in the Ukraine crisis, and any suggestion of "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrrow" may be overstated.

Even though several analyses have it that the China-Russia relationship is filled with underlying tensions and can break without warning, Loro Horta believes that the alliance they have can stand the test of time, given a mutual dependency for resources as well as common geopolitical interests and threat perceptions. Instead of warning Russia about China, Washington may want to worry more about the state of its own alliances.

The US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan was ugly and messy, but certainly not anywhere catastrophic enough to say that this marks the end of US hegemony. China should not underestimate the US’s strength. In fact, while the US flexes its muscles in conventional warfare and pledges a “no first use” nuclear stance, China should beef up its nuclear deterrence quotient for greater insurance against the US.