Russia has been the largest exporter of arms to Southeast Asia over the past two decades but the value of its defence sales to the region has fallen sharply since its annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will only exacerbate this downward trend. Not only that, as the war looks set to drag on for months and possibly years, and sanctions increasingly disrupt Russia’s economy, Moscow’s dependence on Beijing may deepen. China will seek quid quo pros, probably including discounted energy imports, increased access to the Russian defence industrial sector’s most sensitive military technology and greater support for its "core interests" in Asia such as Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Southeast Asia
Politics
ASEAN leaders will finally meet US President Joe Biden at the long-awaited US-ASEAN summit in Washington. Whether ASEAN and US can find convergence on regional issues, such as Washington’s desire to manage the rise of China, will be a pressing challenge.
Politics
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Malaysia’s social media has been abuzz with discussions on the conflict, with different groups expressing both condemnation and support for Russia. Academics Benjamin Y.H. Low and Munira Mustaffa examine pro-Russian sentiments and unpack them for possible explanations for why such views prevail amongst Malaysians, including factors such as religious affiliation, impressions of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and an anti-Western mindset.
Politics
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a stark reminder of the possibility that the fate of Taiwan may be eventually decided by military force. For Southeast Asian states, the clear preference is to avoid becoming embroiled in a cross-strait conflict, though it may come at the expense of their own principles and security. Eventually, Southeast Asian states should realise that they cannot treat the threat of a cross-strait war as a distant problem as they stand to face unavoidable political, economic and security risks if the worst-case scenario unfolds.
Politics
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s recent visit to the US highlights a unique dynamic in the bilateral relationship: Singapore’s ability to speak frankly and candidly to its superpower partner. During the visit, Singapore also reiterated that it does not take sides but stands up for the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Politics
As the fighting in Ukraine continues, Associate Professor Alexey Muraviev of Curtin University analyses President Vladimir Putin’s likely next moves and the impact that the Ukraine war will have on the Indo-Pacific and China’s calculations.
Politics
Even under China-friendly President Duterte, Chinese BRI projects in the Philippines still encountered strong political opposition and faced several challenges in their roll-out. Ultimately, a positive domestic response to the BRI hinges on whether Manila can negotiate mutually beneficial and fair deals that allow China to contribute to the Philippines' economic agenda.
Politics
Given that the historical evidence of physical acts of administration on the disputed rocks and reefs suggests that, with some important exceptions, the current occupiers of each feature have the best claim to sovereignty over it, Southeast Asian states have an interest in recognising each other’s de facto occupation of specific features and then presenting a united position to China. In tandem, NGOs can play a useful role by forming a "track two tribunal" to collect rival pieces of evidence, test the claimants’ legal arguments, and present the likely outcomes of any future international court hearing.
Politics
Japan has consistently come up tops in a local research institute’s survey question on trust among ASEAN’s major dialogue partners. This is despite the history of Japan’s relations with countries in the region. But will the status quo remain unchanged? As Japan and ASEAN gear up to mark 50 years of friendship and cooperation next year, how will Japan work to maintain a strong relationship with the region amid growing US-China tensions?