Toshiya Tsugami

Researcher; Adjunct Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs

Toshiya Tsugami is a China researcher, head of the consultancy Tsugami Workshop, and an adjunct fellow for the Japan Institute of International Affairs. He entered the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI, currently Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) in 1980, and has served as a counsellor in the economic division of Japan’s embassy in Beijing, chief of the Northeast Asia Department of MITI’s Trade Policy Bureau, and senior researcher at the Research Institute of Economy, Trade, and Industry. 

People walk through an underpass in Beijing on 22 March 2023. (Wang Zhao/AFP)
Economy

Will China's economy suffer a 'lost decade' just like Japan?

By Toshiya Tsugami 27 Mar 2023
Pondering the possibility that China’s economy is going the way of Japan's 30 years ago, Japanese researcher Toshiya Tsugami analyses some similarities and differences between the two trajectories.
A woman walks across the street during morning rush hour, following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in the Central Business District (CBD) in Chaoyang District, Beijing, China, 21 November 2022. (Tingshu Wang/Reuters)
Economy

Why the 20th Party Congress was not a 'decisive victory' for Xi

By Toshiya Tsugami 29 Nov 2022
Japanese researcher Toshiya Tsugami observes that the exuberant tone of China's previous Party Congress reports has been carried over in this year’s 20th Party Congress. However, the external environment has changed much for China and its targets could be a stretch in this context.
Pedestrians pass fencing surrounding a residential neighborhood placed under lockdown due to Covid-19 in Shanghai, China, on 6 July 2022. (Qilai Shen/Bloomberg)
Economy

Japanese researcher: China's zero-Covid policy and prospects for the Chinese economy

By Toshiya Tsugami 07 Jul 2022
The impact of the Shanghai lockdown is far-reaching, not least the way it is weakening Chinese exports and consumption, which have helped China weather the economic storm thus far, says Japanese researcher Toshiya Tsugami. This is having ripple effects on global supply chains and may further debilitate them before they have a chance to normalise. To stave off a severe economic crisis, China must deal with three pressing issues.