Researcher Wei Da observes that amid increasing US-China tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, US strategists are rethinking the way they see China and Russia. This revised worldview keenly shapes their calculations of various flashpoints, not least the Ukraine war and the Taiwan issue.

In the wake of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan and the mainland’s retaliatory actions in the Taiwan Strait, researcher Wei Da believes that China-US rivalry has transformed in three ways: political confrontation is becoming more ideological and acute; military confrontation is becoming more symbolic; and further decoupling of major economic and trade initiatives may reach a critical point.

Researcher Wei Da notes that the end of the Cold War left many questions unanswered, including the role of ideological tussles and the clash of civilisations. Among other things, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine shows that a truly strong state is one with a limited government and a developed civil society. The international community has been jolted into action, and it is time to recognise that there is still some way to go to achieve modernisation.

The formation of the AUKUS security pact involving Australia, the US and the UK will likely give the US and its allies greater strategic depth in the Indo-Pacific, says Wei Da. He believes that the containment of China has moved up a notch and China has to recalibrate its thinking accordingly. One way is to shore up its own alliances, which have traditionally neither been strong nor constant. What can China do about it?

Based on the experience of the Cold War, the US can see merit in letting the enemy undo itself in its strategy against China. For the Soviet Union, it was the ills of Stalinist socialism and the failure of the command economy. For China, will its inherent contradictions lead to its own unravelling?

Researcher Wei Da notes that China and the US have been moving on increasingly divergent paths, to the point that relations may soon be irrevocably broken. Despite China’s confidence that it can make it without the US, its strong nationalism may be all that keeps it going.

US-based researcher Wei Da notes that China-US relations are at risk of stagnating and reaching a state of "cold peace" with the current development. While China has been making friendly overtures to the US, it is also signalling that the ball is in the US’s court. Would any side give space to the other? Who will benefit from such a situation?

Trust once lost is hard to regain, says Wei Da, in the context of US-China relations. Even with a new administration in place, the climate of suspicion, mistrust and even animosity will persist. China must adapt and react to new circumstances if it wants to maintain even this uneasy peace.

US-based researcher Wei Da feels that both China and the US need to make significant adjustments in their relations with each other, or else the scenario of a new Cold War and a real threat of hot war will not be far off. Who needs to understand that the world is different now, and adjustments have to be made? And who is the more backward party that has to adjust more?