Academic Naoise McDonagh assesses the headwinds in store for China in 2024, as the US and Europe ratchet up their de-risking efforts. It is clear that Brussels and Washington are also trying to calculate the costs they are willing to absorb in the new world of weaponised trade, meaning all sides will have to dance carefully to the tune of de-risking in the year to come.
Economy
Politics
Academic Naoise McDonagh points out that China gains little by laying the red carpet for European country heavyweights like France, while slighting the EU, as seen from the recent visits of French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. While von der Leyen herself is known to be more hawkish towards China, she does represent the EU, which is taken to have the majority of EU countries agreement on EU positions. China’s approach can only weaken its efforts to better engage the Europeans.
Economy
Academic Naoise McDonagh asserts that a key question posed by China’s rise is whether the liberal international order can remain rules-based, when its second largest member is a socialist market economy operating on different rules that it increasingly seeks to apply externally.
Economy
The newly launched Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity has arguably low or no ambition around market access, but perhaps because of its non-contentious nature, could be a promising start. Countries in the region welcome options amid fears of Chinese economic coercion and may just provide the momentum needed when the time is ripe.