Alicia García Herrero

Alicia García Herrero

Chief Economist for Asia Pacific, Natixis; Senior Research Fellow, Bruegel

Alicia García Herrero is Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. She also serves as a senior fellow at the Brussels-based European think-tank Bruegel and a non-resident senior fellow at the East Asian Institute of the National University Singapore. Alicia is also an adjunct professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, a member of the Council of Advisers on Economic Affairs to the Spanish government, and an adviser to the Hong Kong Academy of Finance's research arm, the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Finance Research (HKIMR).  

 

 

 

People walk past a mural of a dragon in Beijing, China, on 30 December 2023. (Jade Gao/AFP)

2024 will be about Western economic normalisation, China’s deceleration and India’s catch-up

Economist Alicia García Herrero gives an overview of the global economic outlook in 2024, highlighting that gains in real income, among other factors, should help with the soft landing in the US while the eurozone should grow faster than the year before, having left the energy crisis aside. China will continue to decelerate slowly but steadily while the rest of emerging Asia will do well.
Residential buildings at the Evergrande Palace project, developed by China Evergrande Group, in Beijing, China, on 18 August 2023. (Bloomberg)

The dangerous link between China’s real estate demise, the economy and the financial system

With Chinese property giant Evergrande filing for bankruptcy in the US and other companies like Country Garden tottering on the brink, China’s property sector is plunging further into a crisis that could have major ramifications on the country’s real economy and financial sector. Economist Alicia García Herrero explains.
A man walks on an overpass near a construction site of a subway station in Beijing, China, 18 April 2023. (Tingshu Wang/Reuters)

China’s overseas lending needs a full-fledged debt restructuring

China finds itself in a similar predicament as Japan in the 1970s, when the latter was a major lender to the Latin American countries which eventually suffered a major debt crisis in the 1980s. Now a major lender to various developing countries, especially after Covid, China’s apparent approach of kicking the can down the road means that time bombs of massive defaults are waiting to go off.
A Chinese national flag flies in front of HSBC headquarters in Hong Kong, China, 28 July 2020. (Tyrone Siu/Reuters)

A geopolitical read of HSBC’s potential split-up

While the drama over a potential split-up of HSBC is still unfolding, what is clear is that geopolitical tensions may raise the stakes on potential financial decoupling down the road. Mixed West-East financial institutions such as HSBC stand at the forefront of the transitions and realignments under way.
An armoured vehicle of pro-Russian troops is seen in the street during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the southern port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, 11 April 2022. (Chingis Kondarov/Reuters)

China's pro-Russia stance in the Ukraine war could negatively impact the Chinese economy

The immediate impact of the Ukraine war on the Chinese economy remains limited except for high commodity prices, assesses economist Alicia García Herrero. But the full impact will depend on the political decisions China makes on the Ukraine war. China seems keen to abide by the letter of the law to comply with Western sanctions on Russia, but not so much in terms of the spirit of the law. By taking risks and helping Russia as much as it is able to, will it get caught in the crossfire between the West and Russia?