Politics

Vietnam appears to be drawing closer to the US with the recent upgrade in ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This development, however, should not be overestimated as Vietnam-China relations, especially party-to-party ties, remain strong.

Unhappiness among villagers in Rempang, close to Batam island, has led to riots in Batam City and threatens existing and future foreign investment. A small but diminishing window exists in which the local and central governments can improve their approach towards convincing residents of the need to relocate for a better future.

The historic upgrade in Vietnam-US relations has more to do with economics than defence and security. The recent visit by US President Joe Biden was an opportunity for both sides to strengthen cooperation in areas such as high-tech manufacturing, including semiconductor production. This is part of the US's "de-risking" strategy in dealing with China.

Amid the ongoing US-China rivalry, both powers have been sending their navies on exercises in the Yellow Sea, as a signal to each side, stopping just short of actual engagement. This mirrors earlier near-confrontations. Is this all just military posturing ahead of a possible Xi Jinping-Joe Biden summit before the end of the year?

With North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s visit to Russia recently, observers worry that North Korea and Russia, together with China, are drawing closer, forming a greater “axis” of nuclear threat. But academic Jin Kai sees the sense of a greater “alliance” forming as all part of the US and its allies’ “geopolitical imagination”, which could see them taking steps that escalate the situation in the Korean peninsula.

With increasing stakes in Afghanistan's vast mineral and energy deposits, China is engaged in resource politics in the war-wracked but resource-rich country. Maintaining control of the country's strategic mineral and energy reserves is the name of China's new great game in Afghanistan.

With the announcement of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor at the recent G20 summit, it could be easy to assume that India has made its strategic decision to join the US-led West to counter China, or that the IMEC is a natural rival to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. But complementary multilateral structures may not be a thing of the past.

China and India have surprisingly cooperated in facing a polarised geopolitical ambience during the G20 summit in Delhi on 9-10 September 2023, says Indian academic P. S. Suryanarayana. China supported India’s leadership in reaching a G20 consensus on the Ukraine crisis and the development priorities of the global south. The nuances of acquiescence by the US-led West may be key to the future of world affairs, because the G20 reflects today’s realities.

Japanese academic Sugiura Yasuyuki notes that Beijing has been normalising military activities around Taiwan, and these activities seem to be heading towards actual combat, while being used for propaganda. One clear example is the recent Exercise "Joint Sword" in April 2023. There are increasing concerns that such activities will cause issues between China and the US, or China and Taiwan.