Three trends in the PLA's military activities around Taiwan

The PLA has intensified military activities around Taiwan in recent years. When US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, and when Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen made a stopover in the US and met with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in April 2023, the PLA conducted relatively large-scale military exercises. The PLA has also increased its military exercises and patrols by the PLA Air Force across the median line of the Taiwan Strait. The PLA's military activities can be summarised with the following three points.

First, such activities are headed toward normalisation. During Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US in April 2023, China named the exercise "Joint Sword". The PLA's announcement of the name, which had not been mentioned during Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, suggests that the PLA intends to conduct such exercises on an ongoing basis.

The PLA Air Force has repeatedly conducted military exercises and patrols across the median line of the Taiwan Strait since June 2023. As if trying to keep up with the PLA Air Force, PLA Navy vessels have also been deployed around Taiwan, while the number of combat aircraft and ships participating in these military activities is also growing.

During a visit to the Eastern Theater Command in July, Chinese President Xi Jinping positively evaluated the PLA's military activities around Taiwan. As such, it is unlikely that these activities will be merely transient.

Second, these military activities are headed toward actual combat. Priorities during "Joint Sword" were ensuring air superiority and sea control as well as information control. This suggests that the PLA, in consideration of the Ukraine war, is putting greater emphasis on fighting for command and control systems. China announced that it would dispatch coast guard vessels to conduct inspections of vessels in the waters around Taiwan during "Joint Sword".

These actions were likely done with an eye to possible blockade activity in case of a Taiwan emergency. The fleet, led by the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong participating in "Joint Sword", conducted exercises in anticipation of blockade activity in the waters east of Taiwan, and held exercises in the western Pacific Ocean together with the PLA Rocket Force right after "Joint Sword". It has been reported that the DF-26 ballistic missile and DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, which are meant to prevent a US military intervention in case of a Taiwan emergency, were used in these exercises.

In late April, the PLA encircled the island of Taiwan with drones for the first time. PLA Air Force exercises and patrols since June have also featured a variety of combat aircraft from the Air Force, including fighters, bombers, air refuelling tankers, early warning aircraft and drones, along with signs of cooperation with the PLA Navy possibly in preparation for joint operations. In July, the PLA conducted emergency evacuation drills to remove wounded persons from remote islands and landing drills using civilian vessels in anticipation of a Taiwan emergency.

The PLA's military activities carry elements of combat anticipating a Taiwan emergency, and the cultivation of necessary capabilities. Xi has also instructed the Eastern Theater Command to focus on actual combat training, to improve its ability to win any war immediately.

Third, there has been a notable shift to use such activities more for propaganda purposes. Chinese state media such as CCTV and Global Times actively covered "Joint Sword". Immediately after the exercises, CCTV broadcast some of the action, while researchers from the Academy of Military Sciences explained what the priorities were, such as information control and conducting precision-guided attacks on key targets.

Global Times not only reported the daily exercises in detail, but also published articles refuting Reuters when it questioned the combat capabilities of the Shandong. Global Times also published an editorial after the first drone tour around Taiwan, claiming that these drones are capable of not only intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) activities but also decapitation operations targeting Taiwanese dignitaries. China is putting pressure on Taiwan and the US by actively advertising this series of military activities, including contents of unknown veracity, in a bid to obstruct closer US-Taiwan security cooperation as well as Taiwan independence.

At the Shangri-La Dialogue in June 2023, China stated it would not make concessions in the US-China conflict over the Taiwan issue, deciding not to participate in a US-China defence ministers' meeting. Subsequently, US dignitaries visited China, but there are currently no signs of when US-China military exchanges may resume. In the circumstances, we should expect that the PLA's military activities around Taiwan will only intensify further.

There is concern that intensifying PLA military activities around Taiwan will cause contingencies between the US and China or between China and Taiwan. In June, a PLA vessel reportedly approached a US vessel in the middle of an exercise in waters around Taiwan. Meanwhile, during a visit to the Eastern Theater Command in July, Xi issued the order that military affairs should be handled on the basis of high-level political judgement. These remarks suggest that Xi is tightening his control over the military to avoid contingencies.

Tensions in the Taiwan Strait will be difficult to ease for the foreseeable future. The international community needs to carefully analyse the PLA's military activities.

Related: Declaration of 'Taiwan independence' could start a war in the Taiwan Strait | Why Taiwan's future is no longer just a dispute of sovereignty | 'Resist China, protect Taiwan' becoming a consensus in Taiwan | If China strikes Taiwan, can it bear the punishment from the US and its allies? | China normalising military measures in the Taiwan Strait