AI: An emerging strategic deterrent in China-India ties?  

Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were unable or unwilling to hold bilateral talks on the margins of the East Asia Summit on 11 October 2024. This is emblematic of the trust deficit in the current Sino-Indian strategic engagement.

However, the two sides need to re-engage, especially on their respective artificial intelligence (AI) agendas. As they did during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s candid informal dialogue with Modi in 2018 and 2019, they could hold bilateral talks during the upcoming BRICS summit under the Russian presidency.

Addressing the UN Summit of the Future on 23 September 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s special envoy Wang Yi said China “supports the UN in serving as the main channel in [global] AI governance”. He also told the UN General Assembly (UNGA) on 28 September 2024 that “China is … putting equal emphasis on development and security”.

China was conspicuously proactive on AI matters at the UN before this summit. On 1 July, the UNGA adopted a Chinese-sponsored civil AI resolution on international cooperation for AI capacity-building in developing countries.

Ranked second behind the US in comprehensive AI power in a Fletcher School survey in 2023, China carried credibility in piloting that resolution on promoting multilateral economic development. On the multilateral security issue of AI arms, Beijing also submitted a position paper to the UN in 2021 titled “Regulating military applications of AI”.

These actions shine the spotlight on China as a benign AI leader. However, sino-sceptics argue that Beijing is keen to shape its own global AI order, distinct from a potential US-led AI world.

Towards this end, it is argued, Beijing floated its own Global AI Governance Initiative at the Third Belt and Road Forum in 2023. In a further multilateral move, China issued the Shanghai Declaration on Global AI Governance in July 2024, ahead of the UN Summit of the Future, which Xi did not even attend. This sequence of events provides ample fodder for sino-skeptics who suspect a Chinese strategy for AI hegemony masked by a facade of harmony.

India has also been proactive on the international AI stage, despite being ranked 15 in the Fletcher School’s 2023 list of 25 countries assessed for comprehensive AI power. Notably, the Harvard Business Review recognised India as the country with the greatest upward potential in the AI sector — an aspect undoubtedly of interest to China.

In March 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi prioritised AI innovation as a national goal. Two years earlier, he had projected “AI defence” as the best means for a strategic edge over adversaries. The reason was that Beijing had, in July 2017 itself, spelt out policy guidelines on artificial intelligence, emphasising that “AI should be applied in national defence”.  

In a significant comparative episode in 2023, China abstained from voting on an AI-arms resolution in the UNGA. The crux of that resolution was a call for UN-wide recognition of the risks of AI-enabled lethal autonomous weapons systems.

India went a step further than China, voting against the resolution and calling for a “balance between military necessity and humanitarian imperatives”. Furthermore, Modi told the UN summit in September 2024 that global digital governance, a pre-requisite for AI regulations, should ensure that “national sovereignty and integrity are upheld”. 

India’s stance appears to be aligning with China’s firm position on the inviolability of national sovereignty concerning AI arms. Additionally, both India and China are prepared to assist the global south in using AI as a development tool. Despite this compatibility, the true test will be the extent to which China and India might deploy AI arms against each other for strategic deterrence.

The evolving geopolitics of AI arms is widely expected to become a dominant feature of the international security architecture. As such, the imperative of reforming the UN Security Council (UNSC), now endorsed by the UN Summit of the Future, will be crucial for addressing AI-related issues. More so, because the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which also involves the deployment of AI arms, has exposed the inadequacies of the current, unreformed UNSC.

India and some like-minded countries see the People’s Republic of China, which became a UNSC Permanent Member in 1971 (not 1945), as a key opponent of the Council’s reform. In addition to wielding the vetoing right as a Permanent Member, China has been insisting on a near-utopian pro-reform consensus among all UN member-states. Frustrated so far that the UNSC does not reflect the geopolitics of the 21st century, India and its fellow-aspirants for permanent membership have now begun to see some hope.

The Group of Four aspirants for permanent membership – Brazil, Germany, India, Japan – have welcomed the call by the UN Summit of the Future  for “urgent reform” of the UNSC. A sizable group of developing countries has also noted that “further delays” in a comprehensive UNSC reform would “impact the credibility and legitimacy of the United Nations” as a whole.  

On the UN summit margins, Modi met Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to express India’s “support within its means” for a peaceful resolution of the conflict. This meeting was a feather in Modi’s diplomatic cap, as he had held talks with Zelenskyy in Kyiv in August 2024 and with Russian President Vladimir Putin before that. After the Modi-Zelenskyy meeting in Kyiv, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office said “India fully supports Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”.

India does not refer to its efforts as mediation to end the Russia-Ukraine war. But Ukraine seems to be receptive to India because of the latter’s credible strategic ties with both the US and Russia at this time. In comparison, China is actively engaged in “shuttle mediation” to end the Russia-Ukraine war, although not at the highest political level.

Two factors – Beijing’s current closeness to Moscow and complicated ties with Washington – have not so far taken the Chinese mediation very far. Unsurprising, China has now formed a group called “Friends for Peace” among a few Global South members at the UN to address the Ukraine crisis, fraught with AI as a factor too.

So far, global geopolitics has largely been shaped by the outcome of World War II and the possession of nuclear weapons as a power currency. In China’s current criticism of America’s “Cold War mentality”, the World War II outcome was also shaped by the ‘zero-sum, winners-take-all’ attitude. But now, AI is beginning to drive global geopolitics more than any other technology including nuclear weapons. This offers both China and India a chance to reassess their relationship with each other.

Henry Kissinger, a sympathetic Sinologist, had in October 2023 portrayed the US and China as the only “AI superpowers” now and in the future. In his view, these two nations will need to address issues of global war and peace in the emerging AI era. However, other AI-savvy countries, including European powers, India and Russia, will seek seats at the global high-tech high table. 

If China aspires to become a full-fledged global superpower, it must engage its tech-savvy Asian neighbours, not just the US. Indeed, Delhi and Beijing could benefit from initiating a serious bilateral dialogue on AI, extending beyond their disputes over boundary alignment and trade.

It would be naïve to expect state ‘secrets’ on military preparedness to be laid bare on the table during a potential Sino-Indian tech-plomacy (tech-driven diplomacy). However, there is no civilised alternative to dialogue and transparency, even in the emerging AI era.

Related: How China plays catch-up in the AI race with US | Modi’s Ukraine trip: Is India a better peace messenger than China?