Beyond Abe’s shadow: Ishiba and a new era in Japan-China relations?

The new administration of Shigeru Ishiba has been inaugurated in Japan. Ishiba won the presidential election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), defeating two other candidates, Shinjiro Koizumi and Sanae Takaichi.

Kishida’s endorsement of Ishiba, prioritising policy continuity, placed him at odds with key figures within his own party. While he championed Ishiba, both former Prime Minister (PM) Taro Aso and current LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, who had supported Kishida’s administration, threw their weight behind Takaichi.

The establishment of the Ishiba administration also marked a change of government within the LDP. Since the Yoshiro Mori administration in 2000, except for the period when the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) was in power (2009–12), the administrations have basically been led by politicians from the Seiwa Political Analysis Council (Seiwa Kai, the former Shinzo Abe faction) or politicians supported by the Seiwa Kai.

The Kishida administration, supported by the Aso and Motegi factions, was only able to form a majority within the LDP thanks to the support of the Abe faction. However, the Kishida administration saw a shift in the political landscape.

Following the passing of former PM Abe, Seiwa Kai, hampered by political funding scandals, became inactive. While Seiwa Kai struggled, the recent presidential election saw a conservative bloc, including those affiliated with Nippon Kaigi, rally behind Sanae Takaichi. However, PM Kishida’s support for Shigeru Ishiba ultimately led to the formation of the Ishiba government.

This marked a significant shift in power, ending the “Seiwa Kai administration” that had dominated Japanese politics since 2000, with only brief interruptions. Adding to the surprise, Ishiba’s appointment of Seiichiro Murakami as minister of internal affairs and communications was particularly noteworthy.

Murakami, a vocal critic of the Abe administration, had vehemently opposed the Act on the Protection of Specially Designated Secrets (SDS) and Japan’s Peace and Security Legislation, even going so far as to label Shinzo Abe a “national traitor”. This stance resulted in his suspension from all party positions for a year and he was ostracised by the Abe administration. (NB: Seiwa Kai or the Abe faction is made up of conservative-leaning legislators from both the upper and lower houses who are known for their support of increased defence spending and constitutional revision.)

What does the emergence of the Ishiba administration mean for Japan-China relations?

Seiwa Kai was originally a conservative faction and has maintained strong ties with Taiwan. However, the Shinzo Abe administration, which emerged from the Seiwa Kai, promoted the normalisation of Japan-China relations in the 2010s. This enthusiasm was evident in PM Abe’s visit to China in the fall of 2018.

On the other hand, the Fumio Kishida administration, which emerged from the Kochikai administration of the internationalist Kochikai faction, showed a desire to improve Japan-China relations, but was too aware of harsh domestic public opinion toward China and could only reposition Japan-China relations as a “mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests” without making significant progress.

Upon the establishment of the Ishiba administration, President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory telegram that included phrases that viewed Japan-China relations favourably, such as being “neighbours separated by a strip of water”.

While China’s national defence ministry had vehemently opposed PM Ishiba’s pre-election advocacy for an “Asian NATO”, Ishiba notably omitted this proposal from his policy speech after assuming office. It’s crucial to distinguish between pronouncements made during the campaign and those made following the formation of the administration.

In his policy speech, PM Ishiba stated, “With China, we will comprehensively promote a mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests and build up a track record of close communication at all possible levels. At the same time, China is day by day intensifying its unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.”

He added: “We will establish a constructive and stable Japan-China relationship through the efforts of both sides. In this relationship, we will say to China the things that need to be said and strongly urge China to act responsibly, while at the same time continuing dialogues with China on outstanding concerns and cooperating on matters of common interest.”

These words are basically in line with the Kishida administration. In other words, Ishiba stated that he would continue the China policy of the Kishida administration. He also said, “Last month, there was the tragic case of a young Japanese child losing his precious life after being attacked. This absolutely cannot be overlooked,” showing his attitude of clearly stating his opinion when it is necessary to express it to China.

At present, Ishiba’s policy toward China is not clear. However, there is a possibility of a policy change in the future, as the administration is showing signs of departing from the Seiwa Kai.

First, there will be the House of Representatives election in October, and then the regular Diet session in January 2025, followed by the upper house election. After these two elections, the Ishiba administration will be in full swing.

There will be many difficulties before then, but if Ishiba can get through these two elections, there is a possibility that he will be in power for a long time. Will there be any new developments in Japan-China relations leading up to these elections? It will be necessary to keep a close eye on this.

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