Everyone is tired of the Japan-China standoff — it isn’t ending anytime soon
Following comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Taiwan, the Chinese authorities have issued a travel advisory for Japan, prompting debate in Chinese media and society. Lianhe Zaobao’s China news editor Yang Danxu analyses the rhetoric and how things might pan out.
“The state has even issued an official warning, it’s best not to go.”
“Whether or not it’s dangerous, at this juncture I am hell-bent on not spending my money on them.”
“It’s not about whether it’s safe, you should worry about whether going there will result in ‘death’ on social media.”
After China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a travel warning for Japan on 14 November, the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism also issued study abroad and travel advisories for Japan on 16 November, sparking heated discussions on Chinese social media about whether or not to go to Japan.
... many were also unconcerned about the “tourism and education dual warnings”, with some netizens expressing scepticism, saying “it’s the same routine again”.
Some netizens called for a complete boycott, suggesting not only avoiding travel to Japan but also boycotting Japanese digital products, seafood and even “not to buy Chinese-Japanese joint venture cars”, claiming they want to “bring down Japan’s economy”. However, many were also unconcerned about the “tourism and education dual warnings”, with some netizens expressing scepticism, saying “it’s the same routine again”. Still others joked, “(Japan) is indeed unsafe, with the recent bear sightings”.
Back-and-forth rhetoric
The fire ignited by Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi with regard to China-Japan relations has intensified. In response, Beijing has taken multiple countermeasures over the past few days, engaging in diplomatic, military, public opinion, civil exchanges and so forth.
China’s Vice-Foreign Minister Sun Weidong summoned Japan’s ambassador to China Kenji Kanasugi last Thursday (13 November). In a rare diplomatic statement released in the early hours of the following day, it was emphasised that Sun acted “on instructions” in summoning Kanasugi, and the statement issued a strong warning that “if anyone dares to interfere with China’s cause of national unification in any form, China will surely strike back resolutely”.
Chinese scholars and media have interpreted the phrase “on instructions” as signalling that this summons went beyond the vice-foreign minister’s routine diplomatic duties, representing a warning from a higher authority, possibly directly authorised by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo.
In recent days, Chinese state media have also launched a powerful public opinion campaign. The new CCTV media account “Yuyuan Tantian” (玉渊谭天) has been firing on all cylinders, spewing vitriol against Takaichi and accusing her of “stirring up trouble”, “spewing nonsense” and sarcastically wondering if Takaichi had “been kicked in the head by a donkey”. In a rare move, CCTV News broadcast a three-minute segment featuring the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson’s stern response to Takaichi’s remarks.
On 14 November, the CCP Central Committee’s official newspaper the People’s Daily published a “Zhong Sheng” (钟声) commentary titled “Absolutely zero tolerance for Sanae Takaichi’s provocations and crossing the line on the Taiwan issue” on its main news section. The following day, the PLA Daily published a “Jun Sheng” (钧声) article on its front page titled “If Japan dares to interfere militarily with regard to the Taiwan Strait, it would be met with a head-on blow”.
Besides shaping public opinion and issuing verbal warnings, Beijing is also “rattling its sabre” at sea as deterrence.
On 16 November, the paper followed up by publishing another scholar’s article warning that if Japan militarily intervenes in the Taiwan Strait situation, “the entire country risks becoming a battlefield”. On social media, public opinion also resurfaced a statement last month by China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Sun Lei, advocating for “an end to prejudice and discrimination against Okinawans and other indigenous peoples”, sparking a new wave of discussion on the “undetermined status of the Ryukyu Islands”.
Besides shaping public opinion and issuing verbal warnings, Beijing is also “rattling its sabre” at sea as deterrence. On 16 November, a China Coast Guard ship formation entered the disputed waters of the Diaoyu Islands (known in Japan as the Senkaku Islands) to assert sovereignty; from 17 to 19 November, the People’s Liberation Army will conduct live-fire drills in the central Yellow Sea.
Reactions to comments
Notably, however, amid this sudden escalation, some rational voices have emerged. Several former Japanese prime ministers have criticised Takaichi’s remarks in recent days in an attempt to ease tensions. Following Yoshihiko Noda and Yukio Hatoyama, Shigeru Ishiba, who just recently stepped down, also said on a programme that previous governments have avoided making such definitive statements about the situation in Taiwan.
An opinion poll released by Kyodo News on 16 November further reflected the public’s divided response. In reaction to Takaichi’s remark in a Diet session that she intended to invoke the right of collective self-defence in the event of a Taiwan contingency, 48.8% of respondents were in favour, while 44.2% were opposed.
...in China, the popular Japanese animated film Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle — which opened on 14 November — has become a box office smash, with presales breaking the all-time Chinese box-office record for an imported animated film.
Meanwhile, in China, the popular Japanese animated film Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle — which opened on 14 November — has become a box office smash, with presales breaking the all-time Chinese box-office record for an imported animated film. This suggests that the current diplomatic spat has yet to politicise people-to-people exchanges.
There exists longstanding historical grievances between China and Japan, as well as ongoing sovereignty disputes. In recent years, Japan has strengthened its military alliance with the US and sought to bring NATO into the Asia-Pacific. Now, with a fierce clash erupting over the Taiwan issue — which Beijing regards as a red line — “feuds old and new” are building, raising tensions in a spiralling escalation. So, how can all this be de-escalated?
Possible impact
Worryingly, if this hostile atmosphere worsens, especially with ever-intensifying public rhetoric, new risks could emerge. In the history of China-Japan relations, there are far too many precedents of online emotions spilling into the real world and turning into extreme or escalatory behaviour.
In China, multiple lone wolf attacks targeting Japanese nationals and large-scale anti-Japan demonstrations in the past have spiralled into uncontrolled violence, causing loss of life, economic damage and social disorder. In Japan, right-wing groups may seize the moment and similarly turn anti-China sentiment into acts of aggression and confrontation. Such tragedies can unfold all too easily.
Beijing’s forceful countermeasures in recent days are meant to draw a clear red line for the Takaichi government, while Japan harbours deep strategic anxieties over the Taiwan issue. For Beijing, “whoever hung the bell on the tiger’s neck must untie it” — unless Takaichi retracts her remarks, this impasse will be difficult to overcome. Yet under pressure from Beijing, Takaichi has little room to step back — any sign of weakness would inevitably damage her reputation and political standing at home. Both sides now find themselves riding a tiger. Preventing further deterioration and defusing this crisis in bilateral relations will require far greater political wisdom.
This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中日矛盾升级如何收场？”.
