Putin’s gifts a reflection of China’s dominance

China and Russia signed a new joint statement during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China last week. Compared with the joint statements signed between both countries in recent years, the new joint statement highlights deeper China-Russia relations, with Russia being more aligned with China’s strategic needs and also more dependent on China in the economic, security and political arenas.

The joint statement on deepening China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era stated that China-Russia relations are currently at their best in history and that both countries resist any attempts to hinder the normal development of bilateral ties, interfere in the internal affairs of the two states, and limit the economic, technological or foreign policy potential of both sides.

The joint statement made clear the two countries’ willingness to deepen their cooperation in legislation and law enforcement and defence, as well as to continue to strengthen cooperation within the frameworks of the United Nations, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS. It condemned the initiatives on confiscation of assets and property of foreign states — a reference to Western moves redirecting profits or assets seized from frozen Russian holdings to help Ukraine — and emphasised their determination to mutually protect state property located on their territory.

The statement also listed 25 items on the development plan for the key areas of economic cooperation between both sides, including bilateral trade, investment, strategic energy, nuclear energy, local currency, financial intelligence, information and communications technologies, as well as trilateral cooperation among China, Russia and Mongolia.

Despite recent accusations by the US and Europe against China for supplying dual-use goods to Russia, along with the US imposing sanctions on relevant Chinese companies, and warnings that China’s support for Russia may hinder its ties with the West, China seems unfazed by their disapproval. Not only is China maintaining close ties with Russia, but it is also elevating the China-Russia relationship to a higher level.

At the same time, Putin is certainly aware that China’s support for Russia will invite greater pressure from the West, and has thus reciprocated China with an unprecedented gift on the occasion of his visit to China.

Russia reiterated in the joint statement its commitment to the “one China” principle, and recognises that Taiwan is an integral part of the People’s Republic of China. It opposes the independence of Taiwan in any form and firmly supports the actions of the Chinese side to protect its own sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as to reunify the country.

Compared with last year’s joint statement, Russia replaced the country’s recognition that Taiwan is an inalienable part of “China’s territory” with that of Taiwan is an inalienable part of the “People’s Republic of China”.

While the “People’s Republic of China” and “China” may not seem to be that different, their political connotations are vastly different. It shows that in the future, mainland China will request countries that are on good terms with it to clearly define “one China” as the People’s Republic of China, and to support the Chinese side in achieving national reunification.

As the pro-independence William Lai gets sworn in as the new Taiwan president on 20 May, the mainland’s move is intended to further squeeze the international space for “Taiwan independence” and even “one China, different interpretations”, and to deem support for China’s reunification as a negotiation condition for countries establishing diplomatic relations with China.

Meanwhile, China and Russia have also agreed to jointly develop the Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island or Heixiazi Island, which sits at the confluence of two border rivers — the Ussuri and Amur — and ownership is legally shared between Russia and China. It is expected that China and Russia will build a port here to facilitate Sino-Russian trade and benefit the economic development of northeastern China.

What Chinese public opinion was most focused on in the China-Russia joint statement is the agreement to start constructive dialogue with North Korea on the navigation of Chinese ships through the lower river channel of the Tumen River to the sea.

The distance between Fangchuan Village in Hunchun, Jilin province, to the Tumen River Estuary is a mere 15 kilometres. During the latter half of the 19th century, the Qing government was forced to cede the Tumen River Estuary to Russia and Japan-controlled Korea, with Jilin province becoming an inland province. Chinese public sentiment has always harboured resentment towards this.

According to the 1991 Sino-Soviet Border Agreement, China has navigation rights into the Sea of Japan from the Tumen River Estuary. But during the Korean War in the 1950s, Russia and North Korea constructed a rail bridge — named the Korea-Russia Friendship Bridge — over the Tumen River. The vertical clearance level for this bridge is low, which meant that larger vessels would be unable to pass through. It was thus dubbed by the Chinese public as “a river conundrum” (铁索横江).

China has repeatedly asked Russia and North Korea to heighten the Korea-Russia Friendship Bridge, and suggested dredging the lower river channel of the Tumen River, but both Russia and North Korea rejected these proposals. On top of that, the lower river channel of the Tumen River is filled with underwater obstacles, making China’s navigation right only effective on paper over the long term.

This time around, the China-Russia joint statement proposed raising constructive dialogue with North Korea for Chinese vessels to navigate through the Tumen River Estuary, which could set the foundation for Chinese vessels to enter the Sea of Japan. China and Russia are the two biggest supporters for North Korea, and it might not be too difficult to convince North Korea to accommodate passage for China.

Once the three sides agree on developing a port at the Tumen River collectively — that is to say, Russia and North Korea would provide the land while China would supply the funds and the construction — Northeast China would gain an important route for sea access, which would be of great economic and strategic significance.

Another gift from Putin to China would be the joint China-Russia development of the Northern Sea Route. The joint statement proposed the setting up of a China-Russia Arctic Route Cooperation Subcommittee, to construct the Northern Sea Route into a key international transport corridor, and strengthen cooperation on logistics infrastructure for the Northern Sea Route.

From a global sea shipping route perspective, the Northern Sea Route is the shortest route connecting Asia, Europe and the Americas. Once the Northern Sea Route opens up, it could become an economic corridor that connects Northeastern Asia, Northwestern Europe and North America.

In recent years, along with the trend towards global warming, during summer the Northeast Passage is beginning to be free of ice, and the passage basically lies along Russia’s coastal areas. At the same time, Russia is the only country in the world that has nuclear-powered icebreakers. The technology for floating nuclear power plants for both China and Russia is also constantly improving, buoying the opening up of the Northern Sea Route with technical support.

For China, the opening up of the Northern Sea Route would not only provide the shortest route from China to Europe, there are bountiful resources such as oil, natural gases, minerals, as well as fishing and forestry resources along the route — there is immense potential for business development.

Of course, be it the development of a port at the Tumen River or the Northern Sea Route, these are major construction projects that may not yield any impact over the short term and would encounter many obstacles and variables. It is not as positive as some Chinese public opinion imagines it to be.

But the gifts that Putin brought for China this time around more or less showed that the China-Russia relationship is moving towards the direction dictated by China.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “普京给中国送大礼”.

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