The great powers' revived interest in the moon
During the height of the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union engaged in an aggressive competition to reach the moon. The US beat the Soviets to the moon in July 1969 when it successfully landed the first humans on the lunar surface. However, by the late 1970s, the great powers had lost their interest. In recent years great power interest in the moon has returned.
On 15 August, the US's Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) launched a project to develop what it called "an integrated lunar infrastructure" in the coming decade. DARPA launched the ten-year lunar architecture plan (also referred to as LunA-10) asking for contributions from potential developers in areas such as lunar power, communications navigation and other infrastructure. In an interview, Michael Nayak, the manager of the LunA-10 programme, stated that the end goal was to create a self-sufficient lunar economy in the next ten years.
Cold War tussles and prestige
On 24 August, India landed an unmanned spacecraft near the south pole of the moon. Earlier on 21 August, Russia tried to do the same but failed and its spacecraft crashed into the lunar surface. China has in recent years intensified its space programme, establishing its first permanently manned space station in 2021, one of two in the world. The country plans to land a crewed spacecraft on the moon before 2030. The EU, Japan and Israel also have their own lunar programmes.
...this second race to the moon is likely to be more intense and have more lasting consequences for humanity.
More than 50 years after humanity first conducted moon landings, why the sudden interest in the moon? In order to answer this question, one should first answer another. Why did the US and the Soviet Union lose their interest in the moon by the late 1970s? After losing the race to land a human on the moon to the US in 1969, the Soviets lost their enthusiasm for such a costly enterprise. The Apollo 11 mission that landed the first humans on the moon cost the US US$ 25.4 billion - about US$152 billion in today's value - for no material return. The moon was believed to be at the time a sterile place with no value.
The great powers' interest in the moon was motivated by prestige. In 1957, the Soviet Union launched the first satellite into orbit and in the same year, it landed an unmanned craft on the lunar surface. In April 1961, Soviet astronaut Yuri Gagarin became the first human in space. This string of Soviet achievements humiliated the US and seemed to demonstrate the technological superiority of socialism. This made the Americans determined to beat the Soviets to the moon. Once this was accomplished, interest faded on both sides.
The race heats up
Five decades later, several factors are contributing to a renewed interest in the moon and this second race to the moon is likely to be more intense and have more lasting consequences for humanity.
In October 2020, NASA's SOFIA mission found evidence of water on the moon. The presence of water on the moon opened up the possibility of permanent human colonies on the moon and the exploitation of its resources. The moon possesses several mineral resources that are rare on earth such as Helium 3 that could be used in nuclear reactors. Substantial deposits of iron, aluminium, manganese and titanium are also believed to exist on the moon. While humanity may still be a few decades from exploiting these lunar resources in a commercially meaningful way, the potential is there.
...its military potential seems to be much closer at hand and is the primary motivation behind America's renewed interest in the moon and the space between it and the earth.
During the Cold War, space exploration and lunar missions were funded by the governments of the great powers for political objectives. Today, a growing number of private companies are showing a great interest in space and the moon.
There are at least three private companies aiming to put a human on the moon in the coming years. Advances in nanotechnology are reducing the costs of space travelling. Several startup companies believe that tourism around and on the moon will be possible in the next two decades.
While private interest in space and the moon has increased, the great powers will remain the biggest investors in this sector. NASA intends to land humans on the moon in 2025. If successful, this will be the first time humans set foot on the moon in more than 50 years.
Military potential
While the economic potential of the moon may be decades away from becoming a reality, its military potential seems to be much closer at hand and is the primary motivation behind America's renewed interest in the moon and the space between it and the earth.
In January, NASA's chief Bill Nelson declared that the US was in a new space race with China. He warned that if China was to beat the US in this race, that country could claim vast swathes of the moon. In a clear indication that the US is well aware of the military and strategic importance of space and the moon, it created in December 2019 the Space Force as the fifth branch of the American military.
The primary mission of the Space Force is to protect US satellites and other space assets. However, in recent years there have been growing calls for the Space Force to also focus on defending the space between the earth and the moon known as Cislunar. The US military is planning for a time when permanent structures are established on the moon and wants to ensure that it is able to prevent another power from controlling Cislunar space and prevent it from resupplying its bases on the moon.
As the most powerful space actor, the US has a moral obligation to ensure that the moon and space are shared by all to the benefit of humanity.
In December 1915, the Chinese military created the Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) as the fifth branch of the PLA. The PLASSF is responsible for space, cyber and electronic operations. China has in recent years devoted significant resources to developing anti-satellite weapons such as laser weapons and space dirigible vehicles to ram enemy satellites. China is believed to have spent US$10.3 billion on its space programme in 2022.
Space for benefit of humanity
While senior US officials have warned about the possibility of China establishing bases on the moon and claiming the richest swathes of the celestial body, the US is actually the only country capable of doing so in the next decade. The US is by far the most experienced nation in space. The US has so far conducted 15 moon landings, six of which are manned landings. In contrast, China has so far conducted only three moon landings, all of them unmanned. The US space budget dwarfs that of China nearly six-fold at a staggering US$62 billion and is expected to increase substantially in coming years.
While the US is worried about China and other powers claiming lunar territory and its resources, it seems that other nations may have far more reasons to worry about the Americans keeping the moon for themselves. As the most powerful space actor, the US has a moral obligation to ensure that the moon and space are shared by all to the benefit of humanity. The US has shown through its history great generosity towards the world. But on a few occasions, it has shown that it could be greedy and predatory.