China-Russia strategic coordination raises alarm for the West
Academic Hao Nan assesses that future joint training and exercises between China and Russia are expected to become more complex and frequent as the two countries’ alignment strengthens through increased military interoperability, posing a threat to the US and its allies.
Recent developments have underscored the deepening strategic coordination between China and Russia, marking a significant shift in the global balance of power. This comes especially after the two countries’ joint statement on enhancing the comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China in May.
Challenging US dominance across multiple fronts
On 30 July, a Chinese naval fleet participated in joint drills with Russia’s navy in the Gulf of Finland, a critical area of confrontation between Russia and NATO, especially following Finland’s and Sweden’s recent NATO membership. This joint exercise is a clear signal of the growing military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, aimed at countering the influence and actions of the US and its allies across Asia and Europe.
The China-Russia military partnership has been increasingly apparent and assertive in recent months. In July alone, both countries engaged in several provocative military manoeuvres that showcased their strategic synchronisation and mutual support, including:
Deploying strategic bombers over Alaska: On 25 July, Chinese and Russian strategic bombers flew from Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula towards Alaska, intruding into the US Air Defense Identification Zone, following Chinese warships’ intrusion into the US’s exclusive economic zone on 10 July. The bold move was a direct challenge to US national security and a demonstration of China-Russia’s long-range operational capabilities.
The strategic bombers’ flight to Alaska and the joint patrols near key Asian territories illustrate a coordinated effort to stretch US defensive lines and signal Russia and China’s capability to challenge US dominance across multiple fronts.
Patrolling the first island chain: Chinese and Russian forces patrolled near Taiwan, South Korea and Japan on 4-5 July and the South China Sea on 15-17 July, effectively breaking through the first island chain, a critical line of defence for the US and its regional allies. This operation was not only a show of power but also tested the response capabilities of the US and its allies in the region.
Conducting exercises in the Philippine Sea: On 13 July, China and Russia conducted exercises in the Philippine Sea to counter US mid-range missile deployments in the Philippines. This move underscored their commitment to opposing US military presence and influence in Southeast Asia.
These manoeuvres reflect a strategic pushback against the US and its allies’ expanded deterrence measures, such as the US’s declarations to deploy mid-range missiles in Germany and extend nuclear deterrence with South Korea and Japan.
The strategic bombers’ flight to Alaska and the joint patrols near key Asian territories illustrate a coordinated effort to stretch US defensive lines and signal Russia and China’s capability to challenge US dominance across multiple fronts.
As Russia manoeuvres to break NATO’s containment strategy in Europe, it leverages its partnership with China to project power into the Asia-Pacific region.
China and Russia’s mutual reinforcement
The potential Donald Trump presidency may try to forcibly end the Ukraine war and lure Russia away from China, hoping to weaken the burgeoning alignment. However, this strategy seems unlikely to succeed.
The current trajectory of China-Russia relations suggests that both countries are overcoming any residual strategic mistrust to forge a long-term alignment. Their shared opposition to US hegemony and complementary geopolitical interests drives them closer together, making it increasingly difficult to drive a wedge between them.
The implications of this growing China-Russia military cooperation are profound. As Russia manoeuvres to break NATO’s containment strategy in Europe, it leverages its partnership with China to project power into the Asia-Pacific region.
Conversely, China, traditionally focused on the Western Pacific, is extending its strategic reach westwards through its alliance with Russia.
This mutual reinforcement enhances their global strategic posture and creates a more formidable counterbalance to US and NATO actions.
Pulling in more countries
The China-Russia alignment will not only endure but most likely strengthen through increased military interoperability. Future joint training and exercises are expected to become more complex and frequent, potentially involving other like-minded nations such as Belarus, North Korea and Iran. These countries, sharing a common opposition to US influence, could form a broader coalition supporting China and Russia’s strategic objectives.
Increased military interoperability will very likely involve sharing advanced technologies, the joint development of new weapon systems, and coordinated operational planning. This would enhance their ability to conduct synchronised military campaigns across different theatres, thereby complicating US and allied military strategies.
These developments would signify a major shift in global military alliances, creating an increasingly multipolar world order where US and NATO’s unilateral actions could face significant resistance.
Furthermore, involving countries such as North Korea and Iran could open new fronts and create additional challenges for US foreign policy and military planning.
For instance, North Korea’s involvement could heighten tensions on the Korean Peninsula, while Iran’s participation could destabilise the already volatile Middle East region.
Given Belarus’s proximity to NATO’s eastern flank, it could serve as a critical ally in any European conflict scenario. These developments would signify a major shift in global military alliances, creating an increasingly multipolar world order where US and NATO’s unilateral actions could face significant resistance.
The evolving China-Russia strategic partnership represents a critical juncture in global geopolitics. Their coordinated actions in July are a clear indication of their intent to challenge US and allied dominance across multiple regions.
As they continue to deepen their military cooperation and involve other countries, the global strategic landscape will become increasingly complex and contentious.
Indeed, the China-Russia alliance is reshaping the geopolitical order, with significant implications for global security and stability. Their ability to coordinate military actions across different regions and involve other like-minded countries could create a new power bloc capable of challenging US and NATO dominance.
