Chinese arms shine in India-Pakistan conflict

Recent clashes between longtime adversaries India and Pakistan briefly spiralled out of control, with both sides deploying fighter jets, missiles, drones and other weapons, citing their own version of events and claiming victory.

Unexpectedly, Chinese arms emerged as the biggest winner in this conflict — particularly Chinese-made J-10CE fighter jets, early warning aircraft and air defence missiles, which gained widespread attention during the skirmish.

On 7 May, India deployed multiple fighter jets to strike targets within Pakistan, while Pakistani jets took to the skies in response. On 8 May, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, stated in Parliament that Pakistani fighter jets had shot down three French-made Indian Rafale jets. He said, “Our jet fighters… were J-10C. All of these are jet fighters in collaboration with China.”

Although Indian authorities have not confirmed Pakistan’s claims, on 8 May Reuters reported that two US officials stated that a Chinese-made Pakistani J-10 fighter jet successfully shot down at least two Indian military aircraft during the aerial battle on 7 May, marking what they described as a “major milestone” for China’s advanced fighter technology.

The report quoted an anonymous US official saying that it was very likely that Pakistan used the Chinese-made J-10 aircraft to launch air-to-air missiles against Indian fighter jets — bringing down at least two. Another official said that at least one of the Indian jets that was shot down was a French-made Rafale fighter aircraft.

Reuters also cited Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who noted, “Air warfare communities in China, the US and a number of European countries will be extremely interested to try and get as much ground truth as they can on tactics, techniques, procedures, what kit was used, what worked and what didn’t.”

On 8 May, the South China Morning Post quoted Abdul Basit, senior associate fellow at Singapore’s Rajaratnam School of International Studies, as saying that if Pakistan’s claims of shooting down a Rafale using Chinese military technology were proven correct, discussions among arms manufacturers and analysts about its relative advantages over France’s finest were bound to ensue.

Meanwhile, online opinion in China has largely accepted the Pakistani account, viewing the 7 May dogfight as the first large-scale long-range air combat in history. According to Chinese commentary, the J-10C, using a 2015-manufactured PL-15E (Thunderbolt-15E) missile, successfully shot down the advanced French Rafale, breaking years of international scepticism towards Chinese military technology. This, they argue, significantly boosts China’s military deterrence and enhances the export prospects of its defence products.

Since receiving its first batch of six J-10CE fighter jets in March 2022, the Pakistan Air Force now operates 20 of them, alongside over a hundred JF-17 “Thunder” series aircraft jointly developed and produced with China.

Developed by the Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, China’s fourth-generation J-10 series fighters have been in service for around two decades or so. While they remain one of the mainstays of China’s air force, their capabilities fall far short of China’s fifth-generation fighters like the J-20 and J-35, and even behind heavier fourth-generation jets such as the J-16 and J-15. Some Chinese military enthusiasts have jokingly nicknamed the J-10 series “Madam Niu” (a reference to Princess Iron Fan, wife of the Demon Ox King in Chinese legend, meaning something that has fallen out of favour or popularity); in recent years, the jet has often been displayed in less prominent spots at the Zhuhai Airshow.

Moreover, as an export version, the J-10CE — along with its PL-15E long-range air-to-air missiles — has somewhat reduced capabilities compared with domestic models. Even so, the J-10CE shone during the recent India-Pakistan conflict, demonstrating superior beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat performance compared with India’s most advanced Rafale fighters.

According to Chinese military analysts, the J-10CE’s success in outperforming the Rafale lies in the significant upgrades to its radar, fire control and weapons systems, greatly enhancing its single-aircraft combat capabilities. In contrast, the Rafale’s design involved compromises to meet both naval and air force requirements, making it less optimised for air superiority missions compared with the J-10C. 

Additionally, the PL-15E missile boasts a range of up to 145 kilometres, whereas the Rafale’s MICA and Meteor missiles fall short of that range. This gave the Pakistani jets a decisive edge in detecting, engaging and neutralising enemy aircraft before being targeted themselves.

At the same time, Pakistan leveraged its Chinese-made ZDK-03 early warning aircraft as the core of an integrated system, combining J-10C fighters, HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles, and a secure data link network to form a comprehensive battlefield advantage over the Indian Air Force — a condition described as “one-way transparency”. 

Through long-range surveillance and targeting, Pakistani forces were able to detect and lock onto Rafale jets as soon as they took off. This India-Pakistan air battle demonstrates that modern aerial warfare has entered an era of system-based operations, where victory no longer hinges on the performance of individual aircraft or standalone metrics, but on the overall capability of an integrated combat system.

There is no doubt that this aerial conflict has served as a free, far-reaching advertisement for Chinese military hardware. In contrast with the global popularity of Chinese industrial products, China’s arms exports have long remained tepid, with its share of global exports from 2020-2024 at 5.9%.

Apart from geopolitical constraints, a key reason for China’s underwhelming arms export performance is the lack of real combat validation for its advanced weaponry. For years, Chinese weapons, especially high-tech ones, had little to no record of success in actual conflict. Those that did see action were usually lower-tech models deployed by less developed countries, failing to showcase the true capabilities of China’s defence industry.

The standout performance of high-tech Chinese weapons such as the J-10CE in the recent India-Pakistan clash is likely to enhance international recognition and confidence in Chinese arms. This, in turn, could significantly boost China’s prospects in the global arms trade.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “中国军火成为印巴交战的大赢家”.

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