Is former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je out of moves amid a graft probe?
With the latest scandal of Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) leader Ko Wen-je being embroiled in a graft probe, the fate of the TPP hangs in the balance. This could be the Democratic Progressive Party ensuring that the TPP does not become a political force it cannot deal with, but the TPP is not left without options, says academic Hao Nan.
Taiwan’s political landscape, traditionally dominated by the longstanding rivalry between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has been experiencing a seismic shift with the rise of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
Founded in 2019 by former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je, the TPP has positioned itself as a centrist alternative, offering voters an option outside the entrenched KMT-DPP dichotomy. However, recent events have placed the TPP in an existential crisis, raising critical questions about its future and the broader implications for Taiwan’s evolving tripartisan system.
At the heart of this crisis is Ko Wen-je, the TPP’s leader, who has become embroiled in serious corruption allegations stemming from his tenure as mayor of Taipei. While Ko has vehemently denied these accusations, his arrest in the early morning of 31 August in a graft probe of a major property development in Taipei, marks an unprecedented move in Taiwan’s political history.
Ko told reporters that this is the first instance in which the home, office, and party headquarters of a major opposition party leader have been searched. Ko and his wife were both taken in for questioning on the same day, and although he was released on the morning of 2 September, this episode has deeply shaken the TPP’s standing.
These allegations, all centered around corruption, strike at the very heart of the TPP’s credibility as a party untainted by the corruption scandals that have plagued Taiwan’s traditional political parties.
Political intrigue surrounding graft probe and arrest
The party’s legal troubles are not limited to Ko alone; in fact, legal scrutiny was extended first to key figures around Ko in his inner circle. In July, Hsinchu mayor Ann Kao Hung-an, a TPP member overseeing a city crucial to Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, and hence on the Lai administration’s agenda, was suspended and sentenced to serve prison terms for corruption and plagiarism, casting a shadow over the party’s governance in one of Taiwan’s most vital economic hubs.
Furthermore, on 20 August, the TPP convened an emergency meeting to address corruption accusations related to election funds, resulting in the suspension of TPP deputy caucus convenor Huang Shan-shan. These allegations, all centered around corruption, strike at the very heart of the TPP’s credibility as a party untainted by the corruption scandals that have plagued Taiwan’s traditional political parties.
The timing of these allegations is also telling, as it comes on the heels of Taiwan’s elections and seeks to consolidate the ruling DPP government’s power amid a fractured opposition. President Lai Ching-te, elected with 40.05% of the vote in 2024, faces the challenge of governing without a legislative majority.
The failure of the KMT and TPP to form a cohesive coalition has left both parties vulnerable to the DPP’s manoeuvres. By intensifying legal scrutiny on the TPP, Lai’s administration appears to be working to weaken the fragile legislative alliance that has, until now, held his government accountable.
Efforts at institutionalising dominance
Lai’s administration is likely eyeing not just the short-term gains from weakening the TPP, but also the long-term impact on the 2028 election. By eroding the TPP’s standing now, the DPP hopes to attract disillusioned TPP supporters, thus consolidating its own voter base.
This could potentially eliminate the possibility of a KMT-TPP coalition that might pose a formidable challenge to the DPP in future elections. The DPP’s strategy may be aimed at ensuring that it remains unchallenged in the executive branch, even as Taiwan’s political landscape evolves.
This political manoeuvring by the DPP is not unprecedented; it echoes tactics used in the past to weaken opponents. During the presidency of Chen Shui-bian in the early 2000s, the DPP aggressively pursued corruption charges against KMT officials, significantly eroding public trust in the once-dominant party.
Similarly, under President Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP targeted the KMT’s long-accumulated party assets, framing it as part of Taiwan’s transitional justice, further debilitating the KMT’s political influence. These historical precedents suggest that the DPP’s current actions against the TPP are part of a broader strategy to institutionalise its dominance.
If the DPP overplays its hand, it could inadvertently strengthen the TPP, transforming it into a more resilient political force.
Opposite effect may be achieved instead
Nevertheless, the DPP’s approach carries risks. Historically, attempts to dismantle emerging political parties have not always yielded the desired results. Voters in Taiwan have shown a proclivity for supporting underdogs, especially when they perceive that these parties are being unfairly targeted by those in power. In fact, the very rise of the DPP itself during the KMT’s political dominance was fueled by such sympathy from Taiwanese voters.
The TPP, though young and relatively untested, could likewise gain sympathy from voters who view these legal challenges as politically motivated rather than based on genuine wrongdoing. If the DPP overplays its hand, it could inadvertently strengthen the TPP, transforming it into a more resilient political force.
For the TPP, this crisis represents a pivotal moment in its political journey. The party, mainly relying on Ko’s popularity and clean image, must navigate these legal battles carefully, addressing the corruption accusations head-on while continuing to present a coherent vision that resonates with a broad swathe of the electorate.
Success in this endeavour could see the TPP emerging stronger from this crisis, solidifying its place as a key player in Taiwan’s evolving political landscape. Failure, however, could result in the collapse of Taiwan’s nascent tripartisan system, leaving Taiwan at the mercy of the possible DPP absolute dominance.
A diminished opposition might grant President Lai greater latitude to pursue his confrontational and provocative stance on Taiwan independence and cross-strait relations with mainland China...
In a broader context, the ongoing legal scrutiny by the DPP government targeting at the TPP, if successful in weakening the TPP and the KMT-TPP legislative coalition, could have profound implications for Taiwan’s future. A diminished opposition might grant President Lai greater latitude to pursue his confrontational and provocative stance on Taiwan independence and cross-strait relations with mainland China, thereby heightening uncertainty in the region.
Against the backdrop of mainland China’s recent intrusions into Taiwan’s territorial waters, unprecedented large-scale military drills, and the US’s perceived retreat from the west Pacific due to its focus on domestic presidential elections and conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, such domestic developments in Taiwan could significantly escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait, with unpredictable and potentially destabilising consequences for regional stability.
