Why China stays measured on US-Israel strikes against Iran

On 28 February, the US and Israel unleashed large-scale air strikes on Iran, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several key officials. In retaliation, Iran launched missiles and drones at US military bases across the Middle East and at Israel, and the conflict continues to escalate.

Given the severe losses to its leadership, major questions remain over how Iran can sustain its counterattacks and how long the regime can survive. If the current government were to collapse, the political landscape of the Middle East would shift dramatically, with significant consequences for China’s interests in Iran and across the wider region.

However, China’s reaction to this joint US-Israeli strike on Iran has been relatively muted. On 28 February, when asked by reporters, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said that China was highly concerned about the US and Israeli military attacks on Iran, and that Iran’s national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity should be respected. China called for an immediate halt to military operations, to avoid further escalation of tensions, to resume dialogue and negotiations, and to maintain peace and stability in the Middle East.

The foreign ministry did not issue a formal statement, but responded in the form of answers to journalists’ questions, and did not explicitly condemn the US and Israeli military action. It merely stressed that Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity should be respected, and urged all parties to cease hostilities immediately and return to talks.

On 28 February, China’s permanent representative to the United Nations (UN) Fu Cong pointed out at a UN meeting that the US and Israel had brazenly launched military strikes against targets inside Iran, causing a sudden escalation of regional tensions. He added that China is deeply concerned about this development, and that China consistently advocates that all parties should abide by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, and opposes and condemns the use or threat of force in international relations. 

Though Fu said that the US and Israeli strikes on Iran had led to a sudden escalation in the regional situation, he too avoided using the word “condemn”. In contrast, Russia’s foreign ministry issued a statement condemning the US and Israel for launching “a preplanned and unprovoked act of armed aggression” against Iran, which violated “fundamental principles and norms of international law”.

The fact that Beijing did not immediately condemn the US-Israeli strikes clearly reflected a desire not to take sides openly in this war, and to avoid becoming overly entangled, instead adopting a wait-and-see approach as events unfold. If China were to come out in open support of Iran now, it would make it harder for it to deal with the new authorities in the event of any subsequent regime change in Iran. China’s official stance on this round of US-Israeli attacks can therefore be described as quietly awaiting changes.

Chinese online opinion is diverse. Some argue that Iran is “beyond saving”, having suffered devastating losses of senior commanders and scientists in last year’s US-Israeli air strikes, only to repeat the same mistakes this time, even losing its supreme leader in a bombing. Others lament the overwhelming military strength of the US and Israel, warning that the Middle East is on the brink of upheaval and that China will face mounting pressure. Still others celebrate the prospect of the Iranian regime being overthrown, suggesting that China should take it as a cautionary lesson.

As for the possible impact on China of US-Israeli strikes against Iran, Bloomberg reported on 1 March that China accounts for roughly one-third of Iran’s total trade, while Iran makes up less than 1% of China’s overall foreign trade. Although Beijing signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with Iran in 2021 — reportedly including a pledge of US$400 billion in Chinese investment — progress in implementing the deal has been limited. Today, China’s economic interests across the broader Gulf region far exceed its economic ties with Iran.

Self-media account “Huashan Qiongjian” (华山穹剑) argues that the conflict will put China’s interests to the test. Iran is China’s third-largest supplier of crude oil, accounting for 10 to 13% of its imports; the conflict has driven up oil prices sharply and heightened risks to transport routes, increasing China’s energy import costs and overall inflationary pressures. China has invested over US$100 billion in energy and infrastructure projects in Iran, which could be halted by the fighting or by sanctions. The US may also escalate “secondary sanctions”, targeting the renminbi settlement system between China and Iran and obstructing the currency’s internationalisation.

However, the article argued that the conflict may present potential opportunities for China. If the US gets entangled in the Middle East, its efforts to contain China in the Indo-Pacific would inevitably be diluted and constrained, potentially creating another strategic window of opportunity for China, following the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The conflict might also prompt more oil-producing countries to consider settling trade in renminbi to hedge against dollar-related risks, thereby pushing China to accelerate energy cooperation with Russia, Central Asia and Africa, and to expand overland energy corridors.

China’s ties with Iran are driven primarily by economic interests. If there were a change of regime in Iran, China’s exports to the country and its investments there would inevitably be affected. However, Iran is not in China’s immediate neighbourhood, and the strategic and security implications for China would be limited. Whoever holds power in Iran is unlikely to sever economic ties with China entirely. This is mostly why the Chinese authorities have, on the whole, remained relatively composed in response to US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “美国打击伊朗对中国的影响”.

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