How the Iran-Israel war exposed China’s strategic blind spot

After the Cold War ended in 1991, the world entered a period of prosperity that lasted for about a quarter of a century. While the war on terror and the global financial crisis happened during this time, the overall global sentiment remained optimistic.

Openness and reform became the dominant trend in traditionally non-Western countries such as China, Russia, Vietnam and India, and a new wave of globalisation and economic integration between the East and West enabled more people to escape the shackles of poverty and join the ranks of modern civilisation and living.

However, things began to change in 2014, when Russia openly annexed the Crimean peninsula. By 2020, the global situation had clearly begun to deteriorate, marked by three major events: first, the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic from 2020 to 2022; then, Russia’s brutal invasion of the sovereign state of Ukraine in February 2022; and finally, the surprise attack launched by the terrorist group Hamas against Israel in October 2023.

As the saying goes: “For every injustice, there is a perpetrator; for every debt, there is a debtor.” In assessing the origins of the current situation in the Middle East, it is worth examining two details from the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on 7 October 2023. 

First, why were so many terrorists able to easily infiltrate Israeli territory that day? It was because years of peaceful reconciliation and labour exchanges between Israelis and Palestinians had normalised the routine movement of Palestinians from Gaza into Israel for work. Hamas took advantage of this openness, desecrating goodwill and peace with terror and evil.

Furthermore, many of the victims who were attacked, killed or kidnapped that day in Israel were innocent civilians who had travelled from near and far to attend a local music festival — people who loved peace, art and life. This shows that the region along the Israel-Gaza border had been relatively calm and peaceful at the time. The sudden terrorist attack launched by Hamas shattered the positive trajectory and development prospects of life for both Israelis and Gazans, replacing hope with hatred, bloodshed, killing and war.

Some people, when discussing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, tend to automatically point to the “century-old feud” between the two peoples. I believe this is a simplistic and superficial interpretation that grossly underestimates the capacity of modern civilisation to resolve and reconcile historical, ethnic and cultural grievances.

Hamas, as the executor of this terrorist assault, is undoubtedly ignorant and barbaric. But it is the hardened forces of Islamist fundamentalism behind them — specifically, Iran’s theocratic regime and its supreme leader — that are the true masterminds, sponsors and culprits of this horrific attack and tragedy. These rulers do not believe in civilisation, human rights, democracy, freedom, rule of law, negotiation, reconciliation or compromise. Instead, they adhere fanatically to a medieval, anti-civilisational, anti-human ideology of authoritarian, exclusionary and closed rule.

Unfortunately, in the modern civilised world, in recent years, there has been the rise of dangerously extreme idealism and excessive liberalism, which have greatly weakened the dignity and power of justice. In the US, a typical manifestation is the government’s willful opening of borders without regard for legality, allowing massive waves of illegal immigrants to pour in. In major institutions such as schools, governments and the military, far-left culture has been allowed to run rampant.

In Europe, many governments have similarly disregarded the social and economic capacities of their societies and opened their doors to refugees in an unregulated manner, triggering chaos. They have also naively pinned their energy security on Russian oil and gas. 

All of this has led to a creeping erosion of civilised societies, which in turn makes them unable to mount strong and decisive responses when confronted with external crises and challenges.

Cue the ominous winds, dark clouds and cavorting demons. The principles, policies, orders and values that have guided humanity towards modern civilisation since World War II are now under ferocious assault from multiple reactionary forces seeking a revival of old powers. These forces are not only fighting back but also breaking the existing order. 

The prophetic words of Alexis de Tocqueville, author of Democracy in America — “Will [democracy] stop now that it has grown so strong and its adversaries so weak?” — now seems to come under serious doubt.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s brazen ruffian-style reasoning has penetrated the mainstream. He openly declared, “We have a saying, or a parable. Where the foot of a Russian soldier steps, that is ours.” 

North Korea’s hereditary Kim regime not only engages in militarism at home but has also sent troops to support Russia’s war of aggression.

At this key point in history, only with the Monkey King Sun Wukong’s discerning eyes can one identify demons in disguise, and only by wielding his golden cudgel can one break through the demon’s clutches. Israel’s earlier operations to root out Hamas in Gaza and to strike Hezbollah in Lebanon were, in essence, superficial measures that failed to address the underlying issue. The real solution lies in striking at the heart of the threat — Tehran — and toppling Iran’s extremist theocratic regime. Only then can the root of the problem be eliminated.

Given the current Trump administration’s knowledge, strategy and global vision, it is quite a stretch to fully shoulder the burden of countering the tide of regression and rising challenges. However, US President Donald Trump’s strength lies in his much higher executive ability as compared with the previous indecisive Biden administration, as well as his willingness to self-correct and adjust course. 

In a world where most prefer talk over action, the current Trump administration’s pursuit of unity between words and deeds, along with its robust support for Israel in crippling Iran’s theocratic nuclear ambitions, may well be a case of accidental accuracy — but it nonetheless stands on the right side of history and justice.

Expecting a barbaric, medieval-style regime to reach an understanding and compromise with the modern civilised world is a pipe dream. Since a theocratic regime will never concede and will inevitably fight to the bitter end, Israel and the US will continue their operations against Iran. 

Once a critical threshold is reached, the situation may shift into a decisive, overwhelming phase that will cut through the chaos like a sharp blade and fundamentally reshape the political ecology and dynamics of the Middle East.

In this sense, at the very least, it would sweep away the gloom and heaviness of the past five years and sound the clarion call for a focused counterattack against the forces of evil. This would undoubtedly be a source of great encouragement for all just people in the world and serve as a powerful deterrent to reactionary forces.

In this latest confrontation between civilisation and barbarism, freedom and authoritarianism, and openness and ignorance, the dragon in the East must keep its eyes wide open. Putin’s arrogant and savage rhetoric above should awaken the Chinese of today to reflect on history, have a reasonable idea of the global tide, correctly distinguish friend from foe, and plan wisely for the future.

One might look to Ukraine as a lesson: while Putin has indeed sent hundreds of thousands of Russian youths to the battlefield of aggression, Ukraine has not become Russian territory — instead, it has become a graveyard for the Russian military. In the 21st century, Russia’s “ancient rule” must be revised: wherever Russian soldiers set foot, it will be a nightmare from which they never return.

The greatest obstacle and rival to China’s progress and rise is not some external factor or foreign country, but its own values, awareness, vision, openness, strategic mindset and imagination. The true challenge is not the Thucydides Trap, but the internal dilemma of “a lack of virtue at home and weakness abroad”. 

To overcome external challenges, China must first go beyond itself and align itself with the times. Only then can it truly join the ranks of modern, civilised and powerful nations.

This article was first published in Lianhe Zaobao as “美以打伊有助矫正世界走向”.

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