Lessons from Ukraine for Taiwan

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, it has occupied 18% of the country. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023 was feeble, with the Russians gaining momentum, even as fresh aid from the US was not forthcoming. While the Ukrainian leadership remains determined to fight till the end, the conflict has evolved into a long-term war of attrition, and both Ukraine and its NATO backers no longer have any chance of victory.

Pope Francis might have concluded that there is no way back for Ukraine when he suggested negotiations for a truce to end the misery of Ukrainians. However, his remark of "the strongest one" being the party who "thinks about the people and has the courage of the white flag" caused an uproar in the West.

While the Pope's remark may have been grating and highly unacceptable, it reflects Ukraine's dimming prospects. If the US and EU countries are unable to render help quickly, Ukraine has no way to avoid defeat and its invaders will be further emboldened. Putin has found his footing, and while he has only achieved some of the goals set at the start of the war, he has survived the harshest economic and financial sanctions from the US and Europe to keep his military forces provisioned with munitions and soldiers.

The Ukraine war has provided real-life lessons for China which is determined for reunification with Taiwan. While the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has picked up some military strategies from it, Taiwan has also learnt a valuable lesson from the shocking development.

In terms of attributes and circumstances, there are similarities and differences between Ukraine and Taiwan. To the CCP, there is no basis for comparison as one is an international relations issue, while the other is a domestic issue. Actually, there are quite a few bases for comparison which provide learning points for both the attacking and defending parties, ranging from geopolitics to military strategies, economic and financial sanctions, relations with allies, and the resupply of munitions and soldiers.

From a micro perspective, the cause of the Ukraine war is Russia attempting to conquer Ukraine to use it as a buffer against the NATO threat; from a macro perspective, it is a counterattack by Russia over security concerns as NATO continues to expand east towards its border.

Ukraine certainly deserves the sympathy and support from the rest of the world. Now that the country has lost nearly a fifth of its territory, while hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are wounded or killed and tens of millions are homeless, and its cities are ravaged and its economy completely battered, one cannot help but ask whether all this could have been avoided?

Within Ukraine, the faction which favours Europe and the US have always been fighting the pro-Russia faction for dominance. Following the 2004 Orange Revolution, "embracing Europe and forsaking Russia" gained the upper hand over "maintaining cordial relations with both Europe and Russia" as anti-Russia populist sentiments surged in Ukraine.

At its height, the country's pro-Russia elected president was ousted in a "coup". Russia responded by annexing Crimea in 2014 and incited rebellions in two states within the Donbas. This caused anti-Russia sentiments in Ukraine to rise even further as its pro-West government wrote its intention to join the EU and NATO into the country's constitution, intensifying efforts to rid the country of Russian influence.

As emotions overwhelmed reason, Ukraine eschewed its balancing act of "maintaining cordial relations with both Europe and Russia". Politicians and civil extremists spurred each other on as the country's longing for Europe and the US, and dislike for Russia both rose. Russia then intervened and the civil war in Donbas worsened with each party accusing the other of "genocide". Lacking the wherewithal to broker peace and stop the eastward expansion of NATO, Russia ended up invading Ukraine.

On hindsight, if Ukraine was worried about Russia's military might and recognised its growing anxiety from security threats, it might have had a more rational understanding of its survival strategy, and chose to compromise and be wise in dealing with its more powerful neighbour, which would probably have given it a chance of avoiding invasion.

Taiwan faces immense pressure from the CCP in terms of reunification. In the last three decades, two factions advocating "maintaining cordial relations with both China and the US" and "relying on the US to oppose China" have been vying for dominance. As the US-China competition and rivalry intensify in recent years, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has seized the opportunity to embrace the US while stepping up efforts to desinicise and push for independence.

In response, the CCP has flexed its military muscle as its planes and ships frequently conduct exercises near Taiwan. At the same time, it is now common for the Chinese military to cross the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Over the last month, Chinese authorities have also used the Kinmen capsizing incident which resulted in the death of two Chinese nationals to declare that there is no such thing as "off-limit" or "restricted waters" unlike what Taiwan claims. Following this, the Chinese authorities also exercised its jurisdiction by boarding a Taiwanese tourist boat to conduct checks. As cross-strait relations worsen further and the situation becomes highly volatile, this has led to sleepless nights for Taiwan's defence minister.

Taiwan is similar to Ukraine in that both are in a tug of war between the East and the West; this is both an opportunity and a threat. Ukraine chose to abandon its balancing act and thought that it can rely on Europe and the US for security. Unfortunately, the opposite occurred and brought war instead.

The bid for closer relations with China that was advocated by the Kuomintang (KMT) during its time in power is no longer viable following the DPP's long period of rule. In fact, the DPP has taken "opposing China and embracing the US" to new heights.

Even though the DPP insists that it is not seeking de jure independence, both the incumbent and incoming presidents have said that "the Republic of China (ROC) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) should not be subordinate to each other", in other words, cross-strait relations are bilateral ties between two countries. Thus, Taiwan is not a part of China's territory, but sovereign and independent, so there is no question of reunification. To the CCP, this is a plot to undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and it will do whatever it takes to stop this.

Like Ukraine, Taiwan is also in a confrontation with a mighty neighbour. Regarded as a geopolitical thorn in the flesh, it will be forcibly removed when there's no longer room to manoeuvre.

After the Ukraine war began, the US pledged full support for Ukraine on the premise of not sending in troops. At the same time, European countries in NATO helped as best as they could. In fact, they have done whatever they could and lent a strong helping hand to help Ukraine stubbornly resist.

However, war supplies are finite; public sentiments and domestic politics change over time, and national interests take priority, so signs of fatigue have emerged after two years of providing aid to Ukraine. Without the ability to fight on its own, Ukraine will not survive its munitions, aid, and manpower shortages. In the end, it will be forced to accept the loss of its territory and may suffer further damage from the war.

The backing from its allies is the main reason for Ukraine holding on till today. Even though Taiwan is of strategic importance to the US, it is questionable whether the US would assist Taiwan with its defence immediately, resolutely and over a prolonged period.

At the same time, while Japan may accede to the US's request to come to Taiwan's aid, it remains to be seen whether any other country would provide it with military aid. Taiwan may not enjoy as much support as Ukraine did from its European allies. Furthermore, Ukraine shares a long border with its neighbours, making it very convenient for its allies to send weapons to its aid. On the contrary, Taiwan is surrounded by water, and weapons aid may not be able to enter in the event of a blockade.

In the event the Chinese army starts a military incursion against Taiwan, the US will be sure to impose economic and financial sanctions as it did against Russia, but the damage caused to China by such a move may be even smaller.

As the second largest economy in the world, China is the biggest trading partner of more than 130 countries, and it remains the most important country in the global supply chain, so it is harder for economic sanctions to be effective against it. As for financial sanctions, the internationalisation of the renminbi has made much progress in recent years and international payment systems are supported, so such a move is unlikely to cause serious damage to China. Moreover, since many countries recognise Taiwan as a part of China, not many may be willing to intervene in China's domestic affairs by going along with such sanctions even if it chooses military reunification.

Additionally, foreign aid will only be forthcoming for those who are determined to defend themselves. Both Ukraine's military and its civilians have been steadfast, but no one can be sure that the Taiwanese government and people will have the same fighting spirit.

If the island of Taiwan were turned into a battlefield like Ukraine, it would only be able to hold out for a week or two, and foreign assistance would be required to stave off the inevitable outcome of such a move from China. Even though the US has far superior military prowess than China, the Chinese military has an obvious advantage in the region, so it is unlikely that American troops will be deployed. Taiwan's remoteness from the US and Chinese blockades to isolate the island may also make it a challenge to send weapons aid. In fact, there may not even be an opening available to set up a humanitarian corridor.

Ukraine's pitiable fate can be attributed to its geographical location and mistake in moving closer to Europe and opposing Russia. Henry Kissinger who has since passed on once advised Ukraine to function as a bridge between East and West and not become a pawn in great powers confrontation. After witnessing the Ukrainian tragedy, Taiwanese ought to think hard about how to avoid war and reflect upon whether the current path of opposing China, embracing the US, and seeking independence can bring long-term peace and stability to Taiwan.

Related: Lessons from Ukraine: Is it time to give up strategic ambiguity in the Taiwan Strait? | Chinese academic: Lessons for China from the Russia-Ukraine war | Taiwanese youth: What does democracy in Ukraine and Taiwan tell us?